SanDisk Q4 Revenue Nearly Quintuples Beating Expectations, but Mixed Q1 Guidance Drags Shares Down Over 3% After Hours
Claire Weston
Sandisk posted Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion, nearly five times last year's figure and well above estimates, but its Q1 guidance topped out just below Wall Street's consensus, sending shares down more than 3% after hours.
How strong was this quarter, really?
Q4 revenue hit $8.97 billion, up from $1.9 billion a year ago — nearly a fivefold increase, beating consensus by roughly $520 million.
Non-GAAP adjusted EPS came in at $39.25, topping FactSet's $34.96 estimate by $4.29 — a beat of over 12%.
GAAP net income reached $6.9 billion, versus a net loss of $23 million (−$0.16/share) a year earlier. This means → Sandisk swung from loss to massive profit in a single year, a reversal rarely seen at this scale.
What drove the blowout?
AI infrastructure buildout continues to expand, pushing data-storage demand sharply higher.
At the same time, NAND storage — the flash-memory chips that hold data in phones and servers — remains supply-constrained, driving up procurement prices across the industry.
In plain terms = Sandisk shipped more chips *and* charged more per chip. Volume and pricing both rose — that is the fundamental engine behind this quarter.
Where did the guidance fall short?
The company guided Q1 revenue to $10.3–10.8 billion; analysts expected $10.82 billion — the top end missed consensus by about $20 million.
Non-GAAP adjusted EPS guidance of $44–46 bracketed the Street's $44.72 estimate, but the midpoint sat below it.
This means → the gap is small in absolute terms, but the market wanted "still accelerating." The guidance signaled "growth may be leveling off" — and that expectation gap is what mattered.
Why did the stock drop anyway?
Q4 results beat across the board, yet Q1 guidance failed to clear the top end of Street estimates. The market read the combination as a "mixed signal."
Shares fell more than 3% after hours. Put simply = investors price the future, not the past — a stellar quarter means nothing if the next one doesn't promise more.
This reflects how sensitive the market is to the durability of the NAND storage upcycle. Whether Q1 guidance is met will be the key test of how far this cycle can run.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.