Satellite Imagery Shows Sharp Drop in Saudi Persian Gulf Tanker Loadings
N.R. Finch
Satellite imagery shows Saudi Persian Gulf export terminals nearly empty — just one tanker berthed as of Wednesday; Iran has damaged at least 9 commercial vessels since the ceasefire collapsed, pushing multiple oil producers toward forced output cuts.
What did the satellites capture?
Sentinel-1 imagery reviewed by Bloomberg shows only one tanker berthed at Saudi Arabia's main Persian Gulf export facilities as of Wednesday's latest pass.
A brief recovery occurred June 26–July 7, but the terminals have been largely idle since.
This means → the loading rebound from the ceasefire was short-lived; Saudi Gulf exports have effectively stalled.
How far has Iran's disruption gone?
Since the ceasefire broke down, Iran has damaged at least 9 commercial vessels, including 5 very large crude carriers (VLCCs — supertankers each carrying roughly 2 million barrels).
The UN's International Maritime Organization warned Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz is no longer safe for shipping — one of the starkest navigation alerts since the truce collapsed.
This means → beyond physical damage, surging insurance costs and voluntary avoidance by shipping firms are creating a "psychological blockade" nearly as effective as closing the strait itself.
How differently are the Gulf producers hit?
Iraq is hardest hit: it relies almost entirely on the Basra Oil Terminal at the Gulf's northern tip, with no Red Sea bypass. Loadings have dropped to minimal levels, forcing renewed output cuts.
Saudi Arabia is more flexible: roughly two-thirds of its pre-war Gulf shipments have already been rerouted to Red Sea ports — the least Hormuz-dependent producer in the region.
The UAE was still loading normally as of Monday, but two Emirati tankers were attacked this week; the next satellite pass in 48 hours will reveal the real impact. Kuwait remained relatively active Monday, but that data predates the latest strikes.
In plain terms = Saudi Arabia can cope because it has a Red Sea backup; Iraq, locked inside the Gulf, is already unable to ship.
How reliable is the data itself?
The war has increased "dark fleet" activity — tankers switching off transponders to hide movements — so AIS (automatic identification system) signals significantly undercount actual traffic.
Satellite imagery offers a deeper view than digital vessel tracking, yet still cannot capture everything — producers may also shift loading schedules to dodge satellite pass windows.
This reflects a wartime information environment where no single data source is complete; satellite imagery is the best available tool, but not a perfect one.
What should markets watch next?
Rory Johnston, founder of oil-research firm Commodity Context, said: "The loading cadence has started to reverse … everything is now moving in the wrong direction."
This means → whether the Hormuz corridor can reopen before triggering another round of large-scale output cuts is the pivotal question for closing the global crude supply gap.
In plain terms = the strait stays blocked, oil can't get out; the longer it stays that way, the stronger the upward pressure on prices — and the harder forced cuts become to contain.
The loading cadence has started to reverse. We had a very promising trajectory, but it collapsed almost as quickly. Everything is now moving in the wrong direction.
Rory Johnston
Founder, Commodity Context
(Bloomberg interview)
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.