Saudi Arabia's July Oil Exports Decline as Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz Routes Face Disruptions
N.R. Finch
Bloomberg vessel-tracking data show Saudi crude exports fell to 4.19 million barrels per day in July, down 460,000 b/d from June, as both major export routes — the Red Sea port of Yanbu and the Strait of Hormuz — were disrupted simultaneously.
How much oil is actually missing?
Saudi crude exports fell to 4.19 million b/d in July, a drop of 460,000 b/d from June.
Not all of that shortfall is stranded supply. Some cargoes loaded but remain inside the Persian Gulf. This means → the real export gap is roughly 230,000 b/d; the rest is "in transit, not yet out" rather than "never loaded."
In plain terms = the headline drop is 460,000 barrels, but about half is stuck at sea, waiting to clear the strait.
What is happening on the Red Sea side?
Most Saudi crude ships from Yanbu, a Red Sea port on the kingdom's west coast. In July, Yemen's Houthi forces declared a blockade of Saudi ports and launched missile and drone strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure.
Under attack, a growing number of tankers switched off their transponders — the ship-tracking beacons that feed Bloomberg's data — on approach to port. Some briefly rerouted. This means → the tracking data itself has become less reliable; actual loadings could be higher or lower than reported.
Yet weekend satellite imagery from the EU's Sentinel-2 showed five VLCCs berthed at Yanbu at once. This reflects a possible rebound in loading activity, even amid the attacks.
What went wrong at Hormuz?
The interim U.S.–Iran ceasefire collapsed in July, and the Strait of Hormuz came under renewed attack.
Multiple tankers that had already loaded at Persian Gulf ports were trapped inside the strait after the situation deteriorated. Only a trickle of cargo made it through. In plain terms = the oil was loaded and the ships set off, but the exit door was blocked.
This means → Saudi Arabia's two export corridors — Red Sea westward and Hormuz eastward — failed at the same time, breaking the assumption that one can back up the other.
What comes next?
Saudi officials have not commented on the data.
The key market variable: whether the Red Sea and Hormuz routes can both reopen simultaneously. This means → as long as either corridor stays disrupted, Saudi supply cannot normalize — and global crude-supply expectations will stay under pressure.
Put simply = both roads are blocked; fixing one is not enough. Exports recover only when both are clear.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.