Shein's Hong Kong IPO Valuation Under Pressure as Growth Slows Across the Board
Miles Bennett
Shein has won CSRC approval for a Hong Kong listing, but global traffic, app downloads, and U.S. sales have all weakened this year — investors have already cut their target valuation from $66 billion to roughly $30 billion, putting IPO pricing under serious pressure.
How much has growth actually slowed?
Shein's global web traffic growth fell from over 60% year-on-year in late 2025 to about 30% earlier this year, then slid to single digits by June.
App downloads weakened too — in most months through May, downloads declined year-on-year, with the steepest drop reaching roughly 30%.
This means → traffic and downloads are e-commerce's "foot traffic." Both turning negative at once signals that the new-user growth engine has stalled.
How are U.S. sales holding up?
Bloomberg Second Measure credit-card data shows Shein's U.S. sales declined year-on-year in most months through June, with the June drop reaching 13%.
In plain terms = the U.S. is Shein's largest overseas market, and revenue there is not just slowing — it is shrinking.
This reflects a broader U.S. consumer cooldown — inflation and fuel costs have pushed retail prices higher, dampening online spending. U.S. household spending during this year's Prime Day fell 16% year-on-year.
Are competitors struggling too?
Temu's U.S. sales also declined year-on-year in most months over the same period, but growth resumed from April through June.
Amazon held up better, posting high-single-digit to double-digit year-on-year sales growth for most of the period.
This means → the whole sector is cooling, but Shein is recovering more slowly than Temu and falling further behind Amazon.
Can the IPO valuation hold?
Shein plans to list in Hong Kong as early as August, targeting $2–3 billion in proceeds through a sale of up to 341.6 million H-shares.
Investors had already marked their target valuation down to roughly $30 billion, well below the $66 billion from a 2023 funding round and the peak of about $100 billion in 2022.
In plain terms = in two years Shein's perceived worth has been cut by more than half. If growth data cannot convince institutional investors during the roadshow, the final pricing may drop further still.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.