Ship Attacks in Strait of Hormuz Hit Record High in October
nashnova research
October saw 28 confirmed attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz — the highest monthly count since tracking began in 2017. Over 30 supertankers have been damaged since the conflict erupted, roughly 3.5% of the global VLCC fleet — the world's oil chokepoint is tightening.
What do 28 attacks in one month mean?
Data maintained by Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, shows 28 confirmed attacks in October — the highest single-month total since his tracking began in 2017.
Since the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict erupted on February 28, cumulative attacks have reached 113. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) logged 120 incidents over the same period using a broader definition.
This means → over the past eight months, a commercial vessel has been hit roughly every two days. The Strait of Hormuz is shifting from an occasional risk zone to a persistent conflict corridor.
How big is the tanker damage?
A Reuters review of IMO records and MarineTraffic data found that more than 30 VLCCs — very large crude carriers, each capable of hauling about 2 million barrels — have sustained damage since the conflict began. 11 of those were hit in October alone.
Those 30-plus ships represent roughly 3.5% of the global fleet of over 900 VLCCs.
In plain terms = one in every 28 of the world's largest oil tankers has been struck. That is no longer a tail risk — it is a systemic factor reshaping how shipowners price every voyage.
Why did October escalate so sharply?
Greek advisory firm Marisks reported that 12 vessels were attacked in the single week of October 5–11 — the highest weekly count since the conflict began.
Raydan's analysis suggests Iran is deliberately intensifying strikes ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November, aiming to slow the recovery of shipping and sustain pressure on global energy markets.
This reflects a politically timed tempo, not random violence — as the election window narrows, the incentive to escalate grows rather than shrinks.
If the risk is this high, why are shipowners still going?
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) logged 135 conflict-related incidents through October 16 and noted that voluntary under-reporting likely means the true figure is higher.
Yet more owners are sailing into the Persian Gulf, not fewer. Daily charter rates above $1 million and steep crude discounts offered by regional producers create a powerful profit motive.
Put simply = this is a high-risk, high-reward gamble. The harder Iran hits, the higher freight rates climb and the deeper the discounts go — greed and fear amplify in lockstep. How long this structure holds depends on the dynamic between attack intensity and shipowner risk tolerance.
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