Singapore's May Non-Oil Exports Surge 38.4%, Marking Largest Jump in 20 Years
Alina Collins
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 38.4% year-on-year in May — the biggest single-month jump in 20 years, driven by AI-linked chip and storage demand. A proposed U.S. 12.5% surcharge now clouds the outlook.
How big is a 38.4% jump?
May non-oil domestic exports rose 38.4% year-on-year, well above the Reuters poll median of 31.1%.
Per LSEG data, this is the largest single-month gain in 20 years.
This means → not normal volatility, but a structural demand surge from one sector.
Who is buying, and what?
The core driver is AI-related demand: integrated circuits, disk storage media, and personal computers all posted sharp export gains.
Exports to Taiwan jumped 218.6% year-on-year; exports to the U.S. surged 303%; exports to China also grew.
In plain terms = the global AI supply chain is stocking up aggressively, and Singapore — a key transit hub for chips and electronics — is riding the wave directly.
The lone outlier: exports to Indonesia declined year-on-year.
What risk sits behind the strong numbers?
In June, the U.S. Trade Representative accused 60 countries — Singapore included — of failing to curb trade in forced-labor goods.
Washington proposed an additional 12.5% tariff on Singapore exports to the U.S.
Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry rejected the accusation, stating it already enforces against such violations domestically.
What to watch next?
The ministry noted that roughly one-third of Singapore's direct exports to the U.S. could be hit by the surcharge.
This means → May's headline number was built on an AI demand explosion, but if the 12.5% tariff lands, the strongest export corridor — the U.S. — takes a direct hit.
In plain terms = the core question ahead: can AI demand pull hard enough to outrun tariff drag?
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.