SoftBank and Oracle plummet due to OpenAI 'ghost story'

A report on OpenAI's failure to meet internal targets has reignited market concerns about AI investment returns on the eve of the earnings season, putting pressure on a batch of technology stocks deeply tied to the ChatGPT developer.

OpenAI failed to achieve its 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT, and also failed to reach the goal of over 1 billion weekly active users by the end of 2025.

Following the news, SoftBank Group's stock fell as much as 11% during trading in Tokyo, and eventually closed down 9.9%, marking its largest single-day drop in nearly six months; related companies CoreWeave fell 5.83%, Oracle fell 4.05%, AMD fell 3.41%, and Nvidia fell 1.59%.

Electrical equipment manufacturers and data center product companies were also affected, with GE Vernova down 2.79% and Vertiv Holdings down 5.4%, Caterpillar down 1.32%. Investors are closely watching whether technology companies will still adhere to the previously announced large-scale capital expenditure plans.

CoreWeave subsequently issued a statement saying:

OpenAI is not our only partner, our business is supported by a diverse customer base.

Demand in the artificial intelligence sector continues to outpace supply, and we still believe that demand exceeds supply across the entire ecosystem.

The sell-off reflects the market's deeper anxiety about the prospects for spending on AI infrastructure. Investors are closely monitoring whether technology companies can fulfill the previously announced large-scale capital expenditure plans, and OpenAI's failure to meet its targets has put the sustainability of this narrative under renewed scrutiny.

Energy Group Capital's head of research, Amanda Lyons, said, "The market needs to see this to maintain the current AI narrative. The key is that it's a very narrow path: any sign of slowing spending will be seen as bearish for the entire ecosystem, but if spending increases significantly, it may raise questions about the rate of return and sustainability."

SoftBank takes the brunt, with ownership structure amplifying risks

In this downturn, SoftBank was hit the most. SoftBank holds about 11% of OpenAI's equity and has independent investments in the AI data center field, making it the most directly associated public company with the success or failure of OpenAI in the eyes of the market. According to previous reports by Bloomberg, SoftBank is seeking to apply for a loan of $10 billion using its stake in OpenAI as collateral.

Hedge fund Coatue classifies SoftBank, Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, Microsoft, and CoreWeave as so-called "OpenAI stocks,"理由是 these companies all have substantial business connections with OpenAI and are seen by investors as alternative channels to indirectly bet on the ChatGPT developer. The chain reaction triggered by this report is a concentrated embodiment of this logic.

Competition intensifies as internal pressure emerges

Behind OpenAI's failure to meet its targets, the competitive landscape is changing. Google's Gemini has eroded OpenAI's market share, while Anthropic has continued to make progress in programming and the enterprise market.

Inside the company, OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has expressed concerns to several executives that if revenue growth does not meet expectations, the company may struggle to fulfill the massive data center procurement contracts. At the same time, the board of directors has also begun stricter scrutiny of Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman's strategy of continuously locking up computing power resources.

IPO timeline in doubt

The above pressures also add variables to OpenAI's listing plans. According to the Wall Street Journal, Sarah Friar has warned the board of directors and executives that the