SoftBank's OpenAI Collateral Loan Target Shrinks by 40%

According to Bloomberg citing informed sources, SoftBank has reduced the target size of a margin loan secured by OpenAI equity from $10 billion to a minimum of $6 billion, a decrease of about 40%.

The core of the resistance lies in the valuation – some private credit institutions, financial institutions, and hedge funds that have been lobbied to participate are uncertain about how to determine a reasonable value for OpenAI, a non-public company. The relevant discussions began in mid-March and are still ongoing, with details such as the final borrowing size potentially subject to change.

The financing obstacles occur against the backdrop of pressure on OpenAI's own fundamentals. Reports indicate that OpenAI failed to meet its monthly sales targets several times in early 2026, and its internal goal of reaching 1 billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by the end of last year was not achieved. Its competitor Anthropic continues to erode its share in the programming and enterprise markets.

OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar refuted this, stating that the company is achieving its goals and product demand is showing a "vertical climb" trend.

SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is seeking to position himself at the heart of the global AI wave, for which he continues to take on significant debt.

The group recently made an additional commitment of $30 billion to OpenAI, having previously invested more than $30 billion. In March of this year, SoftBank completed a $40 billion dollar loan, setting a historical record for the company, with a portion of the funds being used to support the latest follow-on investment in OpenAI.

There is a clear divergence in the capital market's judgment on SoftBank. SoftBank's stock price has risen by 39% this year, significantly outperforming the 12.3% increase in the Nikkei Index. However, its credit default swap spread has widened by about 61 basis points this year, with the cost of hedging debt risks continuing to rise.

In March of this year, S&P Global Ratings downgraded SoftBank's credit outlook from "Stable" to "Negative," citing potential damage to the company's liquidity and asset credit quality due to investments in OpenAI. The divergence in the stock and bond markets reflects the market's complex attitude – optimistic about strategic positioning, yet vigilant about financial risks.

This融资setback is a market signal worth noting. When the valuation logic of AI unicorns encounters the reality of insufficient information transparency in non-public companies, institutional investors’ risk preferences will rapidly converge.

The debate over whether substantial investments in AI can generate sufficient returns in the short term is becoming increasingly intense, and this macro backdrop is intensifying the market's scrutiny of the credit conditions of AI-invested players.