South Korea's July Exports Expected to Rise 59%, Chip Boom Continues
Miles Bennett
South Korea's July exports are forecast to grow 59% year-on-year, with chip shipments surging 180.6% in the first 20 days; yet the real story is the widening gap between strong export data and a KOSPI that has fallen over 30% this month.
A 59% gain — is that still strong?
A Reuters poll of 15 economists forecasts July exports up 59.0% year-on-year, down from June's 70.7% — the largest jump since 1978.
This means → the pace is cooling, but July is still the second-strongest month in this export cycle. The trend has not reversed.
Part of the slowdown is mechanical: July this year had fewer working days than July last year.
What is actually driving chip numbers — prices or volumes?
Semiconductor shipments surged 180.6% in the first 20 days of July, lifting total exports by 52.3%.
Shinhan Securities economist Ha Keon-hyeong noted: "The gains largely reflect rising chip prices; actual shipment volumes grew far more modestly."
In plain terms = chips are selling for more, but factories are not shipping dramatically more units — price elasticity is driving the headline.
How much did Samsung and SK Hynix make?
Samsung Electronics reported Q2 semiconductor profit up more than 250-fold year-on-year and said AI chip demand will stay strong with tight supply this year.
SK Hynix also posted a record Q2 profit, yet fell short of the market's elevated expectations.
This reflects a market where the AI investment boom is lifting memory-chip prices and profits — but valuations have already run ahead of earnings.
What do the import and surplus numbers say?
July imports are expected to rise 26.6% year-on-year, down from June's 30.0%.
The projected monthly trade surplus is $29.59 billion, below last month's $36.09 billion.
This means → the surplus is narrowing but remains large. Export momentum has not yet pulled imports into matching acceleration.
Exports are booming — so why is the stock market falling?
KOSPI has dropped over 30% this month, diverging sharply from the strong export picture.
SK Hynix's record profit still missed expectations, intensifying the sell-off — the market is not pricing "are they making money?" but "can they keep beating expectations?"
In plain terms = export data answers "how is it going now?"; the stock market prices "can it get even better from here?" — and those two questions can have opposite answers.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.