SpaceX IPO countdown: Three-day closed-door analyst meeting this week

SpaceX is advancing its public listing plans at an unprecedented pace. This week, Elon Musk's aerospace company is holding a three-day closed-door meeting with analysts, with only about two months left before the target IPO window at the end of June, a financing move that could break global IPO records has entered a crucial phase.

According to media reports citing three insiders, the meeting agenda spans across Texas's Starbase launch site and a data center in Memphis, Tennessee, covering space, satellite, and artificial intelligence infrastructure businesses. SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which, if successful, would become the largest IPO in history.

However, a thorny valuation conundrum stands in the way of this financing. In February of this year, Musk merged xAI with SpaceX, integrating rockets, Starlink satellites, X social platform, and Grok AI chatbot into one unprecedented technology-aerospace complex that makes traditional pricing frameworks difficult to apply. Some institutional investors have begun to shift to valuation references like Palantir and GE Vernova, companies focused on AI infrastructure, instead of traditional peers like Boeing or AT&T.

At the same time, Musk has reserved about 30% of the shares for retail investors and opened subscription channels to retail investors in the UK, EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea, striving to build a broader investor base for this historic public offering.

Three-Day Confidential Meeting: IPO Process Accelerates

The analyst meeting kicked off on Tuesday with a full-day tour and briefing at the Starbase launch facility located in Boca Chica, Texas. On Wednesday, another group of analysts representing institutional investors such as mutual funds and pension plans attended an independent briefing session at Starbase. On Thursday, attendees were invited to the Colossus data center in Memphis to understand the progress of the company's "Macrohard" project.

It is worth noting that, according to media sources citing insiders, attendees must surrender their electronic devices before entering the venue. The three aforementioned insiders requested anonymity due to the information not being public, and SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment.

Approximately two weeks after the analyst meeting, SpaceX is also expected to hold a special "modeling day" meeting for some Wall Street analysts - some of the banks where these analysts are based are also underwriters for this IPO. At that time, the company will provide detailed financial forecasts, business logic, and key data to the analysts, providing a basis for analysts to establish profit forecast models before the listing. In addition, some invited analysts have received confidential registration documents from SpaceX, but according to insiders, the documents contain limited information.

Valuation Challenge: How to Justify $1.75 Trillion

For SpaceX's Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen, the next two months are decisive - he needs to convince top Wall Street analysts and ultimately investors that the company deserves an almost unimaginable valuation of $1.75 trillion.

The merger of xAI and SpaceX in February integrated Musk's rocket business, Starlink satellite internet, X social media platform, and Grok AI chatbot into a new technology-aerospace consortium. This business combination has almost no precedents in business history, which is why the valuation pricing work is extremely complex.

At least one large institutional investor, in search of a framework to understand this valuation logic, has abandoned traditional aerospace and telecommunications giants like Boeing and AT&T as comparative references, turning instead to artificial intelligence infrastructure companies like Palantir Technologies as well as GE Vernova, Vertiv, etc., as benchmarks, to support the rationality of the $75 billion financing scale and high valuation.

Retail Investor Strategy: Musk's 30% Allocation Plan

Beyond institutional roadshows, Musk is also including retail investors in the core arrangement of this IPO. He plans to allocate about 30% of the IPO shares to retail investors and, after the roadshow starts in the week of June 8, invites 1500 retail investors to visit Starbase.

Musk also plans to open subscription channels to international retail investors in the UK, EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea, further expanding the geographical reach of the potential investor pool. However, the final deal structure and