SpaceX Paper Gains Wiped Out: Can Fundamentals Provide Support Before Lock-Up Expiry?
Alina Collins
SpaceX shares fell to roughly $180, nearly matching the five-day VWAP of $179 — the average post-IPO open-market buyer is now sitting at roughly zero profit, and the sentiment-driven premium has all but evaporated.
From $225 to $180 — what happened in five days?
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share and surged past $225 intraday, a gain of more than 60% over the offer price.
The stock then fell for two straight sessions, dropping roughly 20% to close Thursday at about $180.
This means → the first-day euphoria has been erased by two days of selling pressure, pulling the price back to where it stood on day two.
What does a $179 VWAP tell us?
VWAP — volume-weighted average price, the average cost basis weighted by each trade's volume — is a standard gauge of where the typical buyer got in.
The five-day VWAP sits at exactly $179, while the stock trades at about $180. The two numbers have nearly converged.
In plain terms = if you bought SpaceX on the open market at a "go with the crowd" pace, your paper gain is now effectively zero — the sentiment premium is spent.
Retail investors who received IPO allocations at $135 still hold a profit, but allocations were tiny — some received only one or a few shares — so total dollar gains are modest.
Can the fundamentals support this price?
SpaceX posted $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025 but a net loss of $4.9 billion; the Q1 2026 net loss already reached $4.28 billion, with losses still widening.
CIO Peter Boockvar said on CNBC that investors are "trading the story, the excitement, Elon Musk," but fundamentals must eventually catch up — and closing the gap will take "at least several years."
This means → the current valuation rests on distant expectations, not present earnings. Once sentiment fades, there is little near-term profit to anchor the price.
How far apart are the long-range revenue forecasts?
Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX 2030 revenue at $330 billion; Goldman Sachs projects $470 billion.
Musk himself posted on X that the target is roughly $1 trillion — more than double Goldman's figure.
This reflects a reality where even the most bullish Wall Street houses see SpaceX's trajectory at a fraction of the founder's own claim.
Low float and the lock-up window — where is the next risk?
The IPO float represents only about 5% of total market cap. A thin float amplifies moves in both directions — it boosted the rally and is now deepening the pullback.
Per the prospectus, early investors may sell up to 20% of their holdings starting the second full trading day after the next earnings release. If the stock closes above $175.50 (130% of the offer price) on at least 5 of 10 consecutive trading days post-earnings, the cap rises to 30%.
Put simply = at $180, the stock is hovering just above the $175.50 unlock trigger. A dip below would actually reduce how much early holders can sell — but as long as the price stays above it, lock-up selling pressure could arrive at any time.
Do public investors have any check on management?
Musk holds more than 82% of SpaceX voting power, with personal holdings valued above $1 trillion, and serves simultaneously as chairman, CEO, and CTO.
This means → IPO investors own shares but have virtually no ability to check management decisions — corporate governance is concentrated in one person.
The central question ahead: can the fundamentals build a floor under the stock before the lock-up window opens?
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.