SpaceX Releases First-Ever Earnings Report; AI Spending Scale in Focus
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SpaceX will release its first post-IPO earnings report, with quarterly AI capex forecast at $10.2 billion — up more than sixfold year-on-year. Wall Street's core question: can Starlink profits keep pace with that burn rate?
What do the headline numbers look like?
Total Q2 revenue is forecast at roughly $6.93 billion, with an EBIT loss of about $1.55 billion — the company as a whole is still losing money.
AI revenue is expected to nearly triple to $2.33 billion, a sharp acceleration from last quarter's 12.5% growth.
Starlink revenue is projected to rise 52.6% to $3.82 billion, generating operating profit of about $1.42 billion — the only segment consistently in the black.
This means → SpaceX's financial structure is straightforward: Starlink earns, AI burns. The company's bottom line hinges on which side moves faster.
How aggressive is the AI spending?
In Q1, AI capex hit $7.72 billion — roughly three-quarters of total company capital spending.
Q2 total capex is forecast near $14.05 billion, with AI alone at $10.2 billion, up more than sixfold year-on-year.
GraniteShares founder Will Rhind put it bluntly: "Starlink is executing beautifully, but it cannot single-handedly fund an annualized $30 billion AI capex program."
In plain terms = Starlink's full-year profit covers roughly three months of AI spending.
Starlink users doubled — so why the pressure?
Starlink subscribers reached 10.3 million by end-March, roughly double the year-ago figure.
But average revenue per user fell nearly 25% year-on-year — more users at lower prices, a classic volume-for-price trade.
This means → Starlink's growth is driven by expanding into more countries. Margin improvement depends on cracking enterprise and government contracts.
When does the AI business start making money?
MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu expects SpaceX's AI unit to reach positive core profit this year, supported mainly by infrastructure deals.
SpaceX has signed compute agreements with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. At full capacity, annualized contract value could exceed $25 billion.
REX Financial managing director Bill Birmingham was more blunt: "This is not going to be a free-cash-flow story — not now, not soon, and maybe not ever."
This reflects a core market divide: AI infrastructure can be sold, but capex is growing far faster than revenue — a cash-flow inflection point remains distant.
What else should investors watch — stock price and lock-up expiry?
SpaceX has pulled back sharply since its June IPO at an $86 billion valuation. The stock currently trades at roughly 77× forward revenue.
Starting August 6, post-IPO lock-ups begin to expire. Insiders and early investors may sell concentrated blocks, adding downward pressure.
Rumors of a potential Musk–Tesla merger will also face questions on the earnings call. Musk called related reports "fake news" but has not explicitly ruled out a combination, noting growing overlap between the two companies.
In plain terms = high valuation + lock-up supply + merger speculation — three layers of uncertainty stacked together. The numbers in this report need to be strong enough to hold market confidence.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.