SpaceX Stock Falls to Just $1 Above IPO Price
Alina Collins
SpaceX closed Tuesday at $136.08, just $1 above its $135 IPO price, after shedding roughly a third of its value — nearly $850 billion in market cap — since its post-listing high. Whether the offering price holds is now the stock's defining near-term test.
What did three days of selling do?
The stock fell for a third straight session, closing at $136.08 — just $1 above the $135 IPO price.
From its post-listing peak, the decline totals roughly one-third, erasing close to $850 billion in market cap.
Shares also broke below the $160.95 first-day close. This means → every investor who bought on listing day and held is now underwater.
Who is still selling?
SpaceX's IPO came with an extended lock-up; insiders will unlock shares in waves over the coming months.
This means → the market faces not a one-time block of supply but a months-long drip of new stock.
Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, said: "We still believe SpaceX has not bottomed. As quality moves down the spectrum, we need to watch whether demand can keep up."
Is the valuation stretched — and what does Wall Street think?
The forward price-to-sales ratio — market cap divided by next year's estimated revenue — tops 30×, among the highest in the Nasdaq 100, just below Palantir.
Yet more than 80% of analysts rate the stock a buy, with an average target of $236.25 — implying over 70% upside from Tuesday's close.
In plain terms = Wall Street's stance is "painful short-term, but the long-term story hasn't changed." Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs all initiated coverage with buy-equivalent ratings.
It just joined the index — is this normal?
SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq 100 barely a week ago, and its price is already flirting with the IPO level.
Talley Leger, chief market strategist at Wealth Consulting Group, sat out the IPO precisely because he expected the index inclusion — his firm already holds funds tracking that benchmark.
He said: "If the slide deepens further, I may pick up some shares, because I believe in the company's vision and goals."
Is the whole IPO market struggling?
The weighted-average return for 2026 U.S. IPOs (excluding SPACs) stood at just 5.3% as of July 13 — roughly half the S&P 500's gain over the same period.
Six of the ten largest IPOs trade below their first-day closing price — SpaceX is not an isolated case.
A Truist Wealth study of 30 major tech IPOs over the past 15 years found an average peak-to-trough decline of 55% in the first year. This reflects that sharp post-listing drawdowns in big tech names are historically the norm, not the exception.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.