SpaceX Stock Potentially Heading for Third Consecutive Day of Decline as Analyst Says Growth Expectations Already Priced In
Taylor Wilson
SpaceX fell 5.4% in pre-market to $175.05, heading for a third consecutive drop. KeyBanc launched coverage with a Sector Weight rating and no price target — the long-term story is compelling, but the stock already prices it in, and Starship must deliver before the next leg up.
Three days of selling — what is going on?
SpaceX traded at $175.05 pre-market Monday, down 5.4%. A close at this level would mark a third straight session of losses.
The stock remains above its $135 IPO price. This means → the post-listing gain has not been wiped out; the pullback looks more like digestion after an initial surge.
Why did KeyBanc rate it neutral?
KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock initiated coverage with a Sector Weight (neutral) rating and no price target.
The core argument: SpaceX has a "highly disruptive" long-term growth path, but the current valuation already reflects that optimism — risk and reward are roughly balanced.
In plain terms = the story is real, but the ticket price already tells the story. Moving higher requires a fresh catalyst.
How expensive is the stock, exactly?
Based on KeyBanc's 2027 revenue estimate, SpaceX trades at roughly 29× price-to-sales (price-to-sales measures how much the market pays for every dollar of revenue).
This means → compared with nearly every peer in space, telecom, and AI, SpaceX carries a clear premium.
The complication: no other company simultaneously spans rocket launch, satellite broadband, and AI. In plain terms = there is no true apples-to-apples comparable, so the valuation anchor is inherently blurry.
Why is Starship the key variable?
KeyBanc places Starship reusability milestones at the center of its valuation framework.
Leshock wrote that Starship's progress will set the growth pace for Starlink (satellite broadband) and Starshield (government / defense satellite services), and will also determine how fast future orbital data centers and other off-Earth AI businesses can scale.
This reflects a deeper point — the ceiling for every SpaceX business line ultimately hinges on one thing: whether the rocket can fly cheaply and often.
Beyond fundamentals, what else is moving the stock?
Barron's noted that at this stage, trading structure may matter more than fundamentals.
SpaceX has over 13 billion shares outstanding, yet only 639 million are currently tradable — an extremely low float ratio.
In plain terms = the pool of available shares is tiny. A small amount of buying or selling can swing the price sharply — volatility is amplified in both directions.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.