SpaceX Up 5% in Pre-Market on Second Trading Day as Historical Pullback Patterns of Major IPOs Draw Attention
Claire Weston
SpaceX rose another 5.6% in Monday pre-market to $169.92, extending Friday's 19% debut rally; yet history shows marquee IPOs routinely pull back 20%–60% after listing — momentum and risk are scaling in tandem.
Pre-market keeps climbing — what is the money chasing?
SpaceX (ticker SPCX) gained roughly 5.6% in Monday pre-market, hitting $169.92 and extending Friday's 19% first-day surge.
On a pre-market basis, SPCX briefly ranked fourth among S&P 500 constituents — behind only Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital, three names that have traded as classic momentum stocks this year.
This means → the market has already slotted SpaceX into the momentum camp: investors pile in on up days, betting the rally feeds itself.
A $2 trillion valuation — what supports it?
Friday's IPO priced at $135, closed at $161, and pushed the market cap past $2 trillion; the $75 billion raise set an all-time IPO record.
Yet the company is not profitable: it lost nearly $5 billion in 2025, and the stock trades at roughly 61× estimated 2026 revenue.
Capital spending is surging too — $10.1 billion in Q1, more than double the $4.1 billion a year earlier, most of it directed at AI.
In plain terms = the price is an all-in bet on the future. Musk says revenue can top $1 trillion by 2030, but there is no earnings floor today.
What do the analysts say — and how wide is the gap?
CFRA rates the stock "Sell" with a $115 target; Morningstar calls it "overvalued," pegging fair value at just $63.
NewStreet Research sets a $165 target but stresses a 20-to-25-year horizon is needed to justify it.
This means → even the most bullish institutional target barely matches the current price, while the most bearish sits at one-third — the disagreement itself signals there is no consensus anchor on valuation.
What does this mean for the broader AI sector?
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the SpaceX listing a "watershed moment" for the tech sector.
This reflects a market reading SpaceX as the bellwether for AI capital markets — OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which have filed confidentially, are now seen as more likely to push ahead with listings this year.
In plain terms = if SpaceX sells well, every AI company in the queue gets a confidence boost.
What does history say — how far have marquee IPOs fallen?
Data shared by Equity Clock show that many marquee IPOs pulled back 20%–60% after listing; Amazon and Robinhood dropped nearly 90% from their highs.
Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Alibaba all suffered steep drawdowns before their long-term rallies — sharp post-IPO volatility is common, even among eventual winners.
One more thing to watch: under index rules, a newly listed company must trade for 12 months before it is eligible for S&P 500 inclusion — there will be no passive index-fund buying to backstop the stock in the near term.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.