SpaceX's First Starship Test Flight After IPO: 13th Launch Attempt
Claire Weston
SpaceX launched Starship's 13th test flight from Starbase, Texas on July 16 — the first since its ~$86 billion IPO in June. Whether Starship reaches commercial readiness now directly shapes Wall Street's confidence in the company's valuation.
What is this flight actually trying to do?
This is the second flight of Starship's third-generation (V3) design, carrying 20 upgraded Starlink satellites to near-orbital velocity.
The satellites will deploy solar panels and attempt to join the Starlink network via laser links, then burn up on reentry roughly 20 minutes later.
The Super Heavy booster — powered by 33 Raptor engines — will attempt a splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico after separation; the Starship upper stage targets an Indian Ocean splashdown about one hour after launch.
What went wrong last time, and what changed?
On Flight 12 the booster experienced uncontrolled spin and early engine shutdown.
SpaceX says it has completed both hardware and software fixes for those issues.
Flight 13 will also test restarting one engine in space. This means → if successful, the ship gains flexible orbital maneuvering — a prerequisite for a full orbital mission.
What does Wall Street expect from this flight?
Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale wrote on July 13 that if SpaceX keeps main engines running, completes the restart and landing sequences, and brings back better heat-shield and control-surface data, Flight 13 would represent material progress beyond Flight 12.
He stressed that bringing Starship to commercial operation "is the critical path for the SpaceX investment thesis."
Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann said a successful test could lead SpaceX to attempt its first full orbital mission on the next flight.
How far is Starship from actually being operational?
SpaceX has spent over $15 billion on Starship and holds a $4 billion NASA contract targeting a crewed Moon landing as early as 2028.
In plain terms = reaching that goal requires clearing three hurdles: orbital refueling — topping off fuel in space — over a dozen consecutive launches, and meeting human-rated safety standards.
Starship has not yet completed a single full orbital mission. This reflects a gap between "test flight" and "commercial operation" far harder to close than the launch count alone suggests.
What is Musk's ultimate goal?
Musk expects to achieve full reusability of the V3 rocket this year — both the booster and the ship returning intact and ready to fly again.
This means → if realized, it would be a milestone no other rocket maker has reached, and the key to cutting launch costs by orders of magnitude.
Is the stock price already passing judgment?
SpaceX shares closed on July 15 near $135 — close to the IPO price — down sharply from a post-listing peak of roughly $225.
Wall Street analysts broadly remain bullish, but whether Starship advances toward commercial operation on schedule is the central variable that will test that call.
In plain terms = the market priced in a premium and gave SpaceX a window, but if Starship stays stuck in the testing phase, a stock price drifting back to IPO levels is capital demanding delivery.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.