Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Is Nearing a Bottom, ETF Holding Resilience May Ease Market Selloff
N.R. Finch
Standard Chartered's head of digital-asset research Geoffrey Kendrick says Bitcoin is near a bottom, citing resilient spot-ETF holdings and a likely large-scale buyback by Strategy — but he concedes residual downside below $60,000 remains, recommending gradual accumulation over calling the low.
What makes him say "near a bottom"?
Kendrick offers two pillars: spot Bitcoin ETF holdings did not capitulate, and Strategy may launch a much larger BTC buyback.
This means → the worst-case scenario he feared in February — a full ETF unwind — never materialized, and structural support is stronger than expected.
Context: on February 12 he warned of "pain and final capitulation," cutting his short-term targets to BTC $50,000 and ETH $1,400.
What actually happened with ETF holdings?
Spot Bitcoin ETF holdings — the actual number of BTC held by these funds — rose to a peak from 682,000 BTC, then eased back to roughly 674,000 BTC. The net change is small.
In plain terms = institutional holders trimmed slightly but did not flee. This was a minor adjustment, not a rout.
Kendrick's own words: "This tells me that the structural strength of ETF holdings is higher than I feared in February."
What triggered this week's sell-off?
The immediate catalyst was Strategy selling 32 BTC. Kendrick called the timing "unfortunate" because it "played perfectly into the DAT skeptics' narrative."
DAT — the digital-asset thesis, i.e. the long-term bull case for crypto — has skeptics who argue large holders will dump at critical moments. Strategy's sale fit that storyline exactly.
This means → the sale itself was tiny, but its signal effect amplified market panic.
How might Strategy respond?
Kendrick points to precedent: in December 2022, Strategy sold 704 BTC for tax optimization, then bought back 810 BTC two days later.
He expects the response this time could be more aggressive — possibly a buyback of around 3,200 BTC (100 times the amount sold).
In plain terms = if Strategy follows through with a large buyback, it would signal "we're repositioning, not running" — and that becomes an early sign the low is in.
What risks remain?
Futures liquidations this week totaled roughly $1.5 billion, comparable to the late-January and early-February liquidation waves.
Kendrick acknowledges residual downside risk below $60,000, but argues that Bitcoin's decoupling from equities this year has already flushed out fragile long positions.
His own words: "There are a lot of caveats to the above, so accumulating positions is better than outright calling the low."
Can the year-end targets still hold?
Kendrick maintains year-end targets of $100,000 for BTC and $4,000 for ETH.
Current prices: BTC at roughly $62,600 (down 22% over the past month), ETH at roughly $1,755 (down 25%) — implying 60% and 128% upside to target.
This reflects Standard Chartered's unchanged constructive stance on digital assets, but the distance from "near a bottom" to "double by year-end" is still a long road for the market to travel.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.