Standard Chartered: Strategy's Bitcoin Sale Could Mark a Turning Point for ETH Outperforming BTC
N.R. Finch
Standard Chartered says Strategy's sale of 32 bitcoins — a negligible sliver of its holdings — triggered one of the largest single-day ETH/BTC upswings in years, potentially marking the start of Ethereum's sustained outperformance. The bank holds its ETH target at $4,000 by end-2026.
Why did selling 32 bitcoins — virtually nothing — rattle the market?
Strategy sold 32 bitcoins in the last week of May, a fraction of its 843,706-coin hoard. In plain terms = the sale was less than 0.004% of total holdings.
Yet Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of global digital-asset research, flagged the market's reaction: on a day bitcoin fell, the ETH/BTC upswing was one of the largest in recent years.
This means → the market read a "laughably small" sale as a signal that bitcoin treasury companies face structural selling pressure, and capital rotated toward Ethereum.
What is the case for ETH outperforming BTC?
Kendrick expects the ETH/BTC ratio to rise from roughly 0.028 now to 0.040 by year-end — an increase of about 43%.
His longer-term targets are more aggressive: ETH at $4,000 by end-2026 and $40,000 by end-2030.
The thesis rests on Ethereum's growing role in three areas: stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets — turning stocks, bonds, and property into on-chain tokens — and decentralized finance.
He added that even a large Strategy buyback of bitcoin would not change this view. This reflects his belief that the trend is now driven by structural factors, not any single trade.
Staking yield — what moat do Ethereum treasury companies have?
Kendrick highlighted a structural gap between bitcoin and Ethereum treasury firms: ETH can be staked — locked in the network to help validate transactions — currently earning roughly 3% annualized yield.
In plain terms = companies that hold Ethereum earn interest just by holding it, so they face no pressure to sell. Bitcoin treasury firms have no equivalent income stream.
This means → Ethereum treasury companies have an inherently more stable business model, with no need to sell coins to cover operating costs.
Will the valuation inversion reverse?
Major Ethereum treasury companies such as Bitmine Immersion and Sharplink now trade at mNAV multiples — market cap relative to the net value of their crypto holdings — below Strategy's.
Kendrick expects this to reverse, with Ethereum treasury mNAVs overtaking Strategy's once more.
At the time of reporting, bitcoin traded at roughly $68,240, down over 4.32% in 24 hours; Ethereum stood at about $1,960, down roughly 2%. Strategy shares fell more than 7% in Tuesday's early session.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.