Strait of Hormuz Shipping Contracts Sharply on Friday as Negotiation Breakdown Heightens Security Concerns
Claire Weston
Less than 24 hours after the US–Iran mutual blockade was lifted, zero outbound tanker movements were recorded at Hormuz on Friday morning; shipowners are holding back as the cancellation of Swiss-hosted talks and an Israeli strike on Lebanon cast fresh doubt on how long the safety window will last.
The blockade was just lifted — why has traffic frozen?
On Thursday the US and Iran announced the end of their mutual blockade. By Friday morning, not a single outbound tanker had moved through the strait.
Shipowners cited safety concerns and chose to wait — This means → the market does not equate "unblocked" with "safe."
Inbound, only one Iran-linked LPG carrier and one Norwegian-flagged product tanker completed transit. A VLCC — a very large crude carrier, big enough for roughly 2 million barrels — reappeared near Muscat, indicating it had made the crossing.
Japan confirmed one Japan-linked vessel transited on Friday but did not name the ship.
Why did the talks collapse so suddenly?
A planned US–Iran negotiation session in Switzerland was cancelled, halting diplomatic momentum overnight.
Almost immediately, Israeli forces struck southern Lebanon, defying Washington's warnings — This means → regional tensions spiked just as diplomacy had begun to ease them.
Maritime risk firm Marisks told clients: "The immediate breakdown of the first round of talks is a major setback for regional stability. Unless diplomatic engagement resumes, the security environment may remain volatile."
In plain terms = the blockade is lifted on paper, but the political conditions for safe passage are not yet in place.
How much oil is waiting inside the Gulf?
Roughly 40 VLCCs carrying nearly 80 million barrels of non-Iranian crude are standing by in the Persian Gulf, ready to sail once conditions allow.
Four laden VLCCs are already edging toward the strait: two India-linked carriers have begun heading for the channel; two more are moving east to close the distance.
The supertanker *Tianshan*, carrying nearly 1.8 million barrels of Das Island crude, switched off its transponder late Thursday near the strait and is now in the Gulf of Oman, signalling "open for orders."
This reflects the shipowner mindset: the oil is loaded, the ships are positioned — but no one wants to be first into an uncertain channel.
Is the strait actually safe right now?
The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) warned that sea mines remain in the central strait and advised vessels to use the southern lane closer to the Omani coast.
Shipping body BIMCO and RBC Capital Markets analysts both flagged unresolved hazards, including congestion risk and uncertainty over Iran's control of transit.
In plain terms = the strait is nominally open, but mines in the middle and political volatility on both sides make waiting the rational call.
What comes next?
Within hours of Thursday's agreement taking effect, vessels carrying roughly 10 million barrels — including the first Saudi-owned tankers — had departed or were transiting the strait, proving passage is feasible when conditions hold.
This means → only one variable remains: whether diplomacy restarts.
If US–Iran talks resume, 80 million barrels of standby crude can flow to market quickly, easing near-term supply pressure. If the stalemate persists, oil prices will keep pricing in the risk that the blockade could snap back at any time.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.