Strait of Hormuz Shipping Volume Drops to Three-Month Low as U.S.-Iran Deal Prospects Remain Uncertain
Nashnova编辑部
The five-day average of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to roughly 13 vessels, down about 90% from pre-strike norms. This means → the world's most critical oil chokepoint remains near-paralyzed, and the U.S.–Iran negotiation stalemate keeps supply risk elevated.
How bad is the blockage right now?
As of August 12, Kpler shipping data put the five-day transit average at about 13 vessels — the lowest since May 12.
The pre-strike norm was roughly 130 vessels per day. Current traffic is one-tenth of that.
In plain terms = a waterway carrying about 20% of global oil trade is down to a trickle of ships moving under military escort.
How large is the oil-export gap?
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil exports through the strait under U.S. Navy escort have reached a seven-day average near 9 million barrels per day; adding pipelines, total Gulf exports run about 15 million bpd.
Pre-strike, crude and refined products moving through Hormuz totaled roughly 20 million bpd — a gap of about 5 million bpd remains.
Wright noted that some vessels transit covertly, so private-sector counts likely understate actual traffic. This means → the real picture may be somewhat better than 13 ships suggests, but it is still far from normal.
Why did the earlier deal collapse?
The U.S. and Iran signed an interim agreement on June 17. Strait traffic rebounded quickly, reaching a five-day average of about 60 vessels by June 26.
The deal fell apart over disagreements on shipping-lane designations. Iran then attacked tankers using U.S.-protected routes along the Omani coast.
The Trump administration cited the attacks to launch more than ten rounds of strikes and reimpose a naval blockade. In plain terms = one routing dispute erased weeks of diplomatic progress and sent both sides back to military escalation.
Where do negotiations stand now?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC a week ago that a deal to reopen the strait "could come soon." Oil prices dipped on the headline — but no agreement has materialized.
Mohsen Rezaei, an Iranian Supreme National Security Council official, said Tuesday on state media that the strait will not fully reopen unless Washington accepts Tehran's terms.
Trump has re-engaged the diplomatic track this month, yet progress remains unclear. This reflects a fundamental gap on core conditions; a near-term breakthrough looks unlikely.
What does this mean for markets?
Current traffic is still about 80% below the post-deal peak in late June. When the strait returns to normal is the single most-watched variable for oil markets.
This means → as long as the strait stays semi-blocked, global crude supply hangs under a sword — oil prices will be acutely sensitive to any negotiation signal.
Bessent's "coming soon" call has already been proven premature once. Markets will price the next round of optimism far more cautiously.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.