Study: Global Cobalt Supply Chain 'Fragility' Severely Underestimated, 45% of EVs Face Supply Disruption Risk
Claire Weston
A new study from the Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences finds the global cobalt network is acutely vulnerable to targeted disruption, with cascade effects reaching four times the physical trade network — leaving roughly 45% of EVs still on traditional cobalt chemistries directly exposed.
What makes the cobalt network so fragile?
The study's core finding: cobalt networks absorb random small shocks well, but a targeted hit on a key node triggers cascades covering roughly four times the physical trade network.
This means → conventional trade data tracks only direct imports and exports, missing second- and third-tier links; the real risk exposure has been severely underestimated.
In plain terms = the trade data is a map showing only highways — but when a break occurs, the collapse spreads along back roads four times wider than the highway itself.
Why is cobalt supply inherently unstable?
The DRC alone accounts for roughly 70%–75% of global primary cobalt output; its mining belt is heavily exposed to strikes, geopolitical shifts, and export controls.
The deeper issue: about 94% of the world's cobalt is a by-product of copper mining (50%) and nickel mining (44%) — only around 6% comes from dedicated cobalt mines.
This means → cobalt output is driven by copper and nickel economics, not battery demand. A crash in copper or nickel prices alone can sever cobalt supply — and the EV industry has almost no bargaining power over that.
What role does China play in the cobalt chain?
USGS research shows Chinese firms now control ownership or financing of roughly 15 of the DRC's 17 largest cobalt mines, while heavily subsidised domestic refining gives China a near-monopoly on midstream and downstream processing.
In 2024 China imposed export controls on gallium, germanium, and antimony; in April 2025 it extended restrictions to several rare-earth elements.
This means → similar controls on cobalt are a realistic possibility — and if enacted, the impact would transmit directly through the global EV supply chain.
Which countries and companies are hit first?
About 45% of EVs still use NMC and NCA chemistries (traditional cobalt-based batteries), kept for their higher energy density — but their supply-chain fragility was previously underestimated.
South Africa, Indonesia, and Mexico produce little cobalt domestically yet depend on it heavily; their exposure to random shocks is equally severe.
This reflects a systemic blind spot in conventional trade analysis — the market may still be under-pricing the risk of supply-chain rupture.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.