Surging AI and EV Demand Makes Energy Forecasting Significantly Harder, Chinese Officials Say
Miles Bennett
Ren Yuzhi, head of planning at China's National Energy Administration, says AI data centers and electric vehicles have pushed energy demand consistently above forecasts — with annual power additions set to hit 600 billion kWh over the next five years, equivalent to Germany's entire annual output.
How far has demand overshot in the past five years?
China added roughly 570 billion kWh of new power demand per year over the past five years, consistently above official projections.
The NEA expects that figure to rise to about 600 billion kWh per year over the next five — equivalent to Germany's total annual generation.
This means → China needs to build "a new Germany" of power supply every year, and the pace is still accelerating.
What happens when forecasts miss? 2021 already answered that
In 2021, planners projected total energy demand at about 4.6 billion tonnes of standard coal by 2025 — a 14% rise from 2020.
The actual figure: 5.13 billion tonnes, far above expectations.
This means → the gap exceeded 500 million tonnes of standard coal and directly triggered multiple rounds of power shortages in 2021–2022.
To fill the gap, authorities fast-tracked new coal-fired plants and pushed coal output to a record high. In plain terms = forecast errors are not just a numbers problem — they drive up carbon emissions.
What are the key variables making forecasts harder this time?
Ren singled out electric vehicles, whose growth has accelerated sharply this year, driving a steep rise in charging demand.
AI data centers are the other core variable — they run around the clock, creating a load profile fundamentally different from traditional industry.
This reflects a shift in China's power-demand growth engine: away from steel and cement, toward AI and EVs as the new heavy consumers. Forecasting models need to be rebuilt.
How is the west's role set to change?
For decades, China relied on "west-to-east power transmission" — shipping electricity from western provinces to eastern coastal cities.
Ren said authorities are now evaluating whether to move energy-intensive industries westward, closer to renewable energy sources.
His words: "Western regions will more likely shift to exporting finished goods and computing power." In plain terms = instead of just transmitting electricity, the plan is to build AI data centers where the power is generated and consume the energy locally.
Can the 2030 coal-peak target still be met?
China's current five-year plan targets peak coal consumption before 2030.
But the 2021 lesson is clear: when demand overshoots, the fastest fix is still coal.
This means → if AI and EVs keep pushing power demand higher and renewable expansion cannot keep pace, the coal-peak timeline may have to slip — and that remains the central uncertainty in China's energy planning.
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