Taiwan PCB Output Surpasses NT$1 Trillion for the First Time; Material Shortages to Persist Through 2028
nashnova research
Taiwan's PCB industry is set to breach NT$1 trillion in annual output for the first time in 2026, up 24.2% year-on-year, driven by AI infrastructure spending — yet upstream material shortages will persist at least through 2027–2028, handing suppliers pricing power.
Where does the trillion-dollar milestone come from?
TPCA data: Taiwan's PCB industry (including offshore production) posted NT$524.7 billion (≈US$16 billion) in output in H1 2026, up 23.9% year-on-year.
Full-year output is forecast at NT$1.1365 trillion, up 24.2% — the first time the industry has crossed the trillion-NT threshold.
This means → The number is not inflated by price hikes alone. The core driver is a sustained expansion of AI infrastructure investment — from semiconductor packaging to data centers, every step depends on PCBs.
How severe is the material shortage?
Unimicron chairman Michael Chien noted that low-CTE glass cloth, copper-clad laminates (CCL — the "base plate" material of a PCB), and ABF substrates have been in tight supply for one to two years.
Over 80% of equipment lead times have lengthened significantly; roughly 20% have doubled. Some specialized tools now take up to 30 months to deliver. He estimates a ≈20% shortfall in critical materials by 2027.
In plain terms = The squeeze is no longer limited to high-end materials — it is spreading down the supply chain into mid-tier products like standard CCL and ABF substrates.
What does the shortage mean for pricing?
ZDT chairman Frank Shen said upstream PCB material shortages show no sign of easing, with no resolution in sight "at least through 2027–2028."
Japan's Panasonic recently announced CCL price increases of up to 200%, effectively exiting the mid-to-low-end CCL market.
This means → Suppliers now hold the pricing lever. When demand grows exponentially and supply cannot keep up, pricing power shifts from buyer to seller.
How far out does the capacity build-out stretch?
Industry assessments show that expansion visibility for PCB upstream supply chains has extended from one–two years to three–four years, reaching 2029–2030.
Chien cited data showing global compute-doubling cycles shortened from roughly two years (2000–2010) to about five months after 2024. Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to sustain capex growth through 2028 — up 6× to 6.8× versus 2024.
In plain terms = Compute demand doubles every five months, but a new factory takes three to four years to build. That time gap is the root cause of shortages and price hikes.
Who is expanding most aggressively — and who is falling behind?
Shen noted that mainland China and Taiwan are the most active in the global PCB investment wave; Japan and South Korea are relatively conservative.
Southeast Asian markets (e.g. Thailand) have seen expansion plans lag expectations due to incomplete local supply chains; some orders are spilling over to second-tier suppliers.
This reflects a deeper reality: PCB expansion is not just about capital — it requires a full local ecosystem. Without one, building a factory alone does not close the capacity gap.
What will prove the cycle's staying power?
Chien stressed that demand-visibility from end customers is the key to closing the supply-demand gap — only when customers share accurate demand plans can the supply chain expand in sync.
Whether material shortages ease on schedule by 2027–2028 will be the defining checkpoint for this expansion cycle.
This means → A soft landing depends less on how many plants are built, and more on how fast information flows between customers and suppliers.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。