Tanker Traffic Through Strait of Hormuz Rebounds After US-Iran Ceasefire as Gulf Oil States Resume Tenders
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After the U.S.–Iran ceasefire took effect, 14 tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday — the highest since mid-April — yet still a fraction of the pre-conflict pace of 100-plus vessels a day; roughly 500 merchant ships remain backed up in the Persian Gulf awaiting clearer transit rules, and geopolitical uncertainty clouds the timeline for full reopening.
How much traffic is actually moving?
Maritime-data firm Kpler counted 25 vessels through the strait on Thursday, including 14 tankers, most using the northern lane along Iran's coast.
This means → the strait has shifted from near-blockade to slow trickle, not full reopening — pre-conflict daily traffic exceeded 100 ships; current flow is less than one-seventh of that.
Friday's pattern held: at least 4 tankers headed for Iraqi Gulf ports, 1 Japanese crude carrier exited toward Japan, 2 Indian-flagged VLCCs transited toward India, and 5 Iranian VLCCs departed the area laden with crude.
How much oil is still stuck in the Gulf?
Among merchant ships waiting to transit, 40 VLCCs carry close to 80 million barrels of crude (excluding Iranian tankers).
About 21 of those show Asian destinations; at least 3 were steaming east toward the strait at normal speed on Friday morning.
In plain terms = the Gulf is holding a "floating oil depot" — those 40 ships alone carry roughly one day of global oil consumption; a concentrated release would spike short-term arrivals at destination ports.
Why are producers already tendering?
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation lifted force majeure, announced a production increase, and tendered crude for July delivery.
Abu Dhabi's national oil company issued its fourth tender this month.
This means → Gulf producers have read the transit window as open and are racing to lock in downstream buyers — moving faster than formal transit rules have been finalized.
What rules are the 500 waiting ships missing?
Roughly 500 merchant ships remain in the Persian Gulf, awaiting clearer rules on lane assignment and queuing order.
Iran's "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" now requires transit applications at least 48 hours before a vessel reaches the strait zone, plus Iranian-approved hull insurance — fees waived for 60 days, with possible charges afterward.
The authority insists on a single permitted lane: the Iranian route near Larak Island (the northern lane). The southern lane runs through Omani waters under U.S. Navy oversight but carries grounding risk; the central channel is deemed unsafe due to mines.
What is the real variable?
After the U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, Israel continued airstrikes on Lebanon; the next round of U.S.–Iran talks, scheduled for this weekend in Switzerland, has been postponed.
Israel's ambassador to the U.S. confirmed Friday that Israel is "firmly committed to an immediate ceasefire" and halted "all offensive operations" that morning — but Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon to clear Hezbollah.
This reflects a deeper reality: the true bottleneck for strait traffic is not technical rules but geopolitics — whether U.S.–Iran talks resume and where Israel ultimately lands will determine if the current slow trickle can become a stable order.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.