Tankers Make Large-Scale Diversions Toward Middle East Ahead of Strait of Hormuz Reopening
N.R. Finch
A U.S.–Iran ceasefire deal is set for signing this Friday; at least two tankers have already U-turned in the Indian Ocean toward the Gulf. Empty supertankers waiting outside the strait surged from 36 to roughly 60, and how fast global oil supply recovers hinges on who enters the Persian Gulf first.
Which ships made the U-turn?
Suezmax tanker Kapodistrias 21 switched its destination Monday from Gabon to Fujairah, UAE. The vessel is managed by Athens-based Ensel SA.
The same day, VLCC Coslucky Lake — operated by a unit of China's state-owned COSCO Shipping — abandoned its South Africa route and also turned toward Fujairah.
This means → both diversions came within hours of the interim U.S.–Iran deal leaking. Shipowners are betting real money on the strait reopening.
How many ships are queuing outside the strait?
Empty supertankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman rose to about 60 this week, up from roughly 36 at the start of the month.
In plain terms = these empty ships are like trucks lined up outside a toll gate — once it lifts, whoever is closest loads first and locks in freight.
Whether this fleet can move quickly into the Persian Gulf will directly set the pace of global oil-supply recovery.
What is happening inside the Persian Gulf?
Over the past day, at least two bulk carriers, one LNG vessel, and one container ship were tracked heading east inside the Gulf.
Their apparent target: anchorages near Dubai, where owners typically resupply and buy insurance in final preparation for transit.
This means → vessels trapped for three months are also racing to catch the reopening window.
What are Iran and Qatar doing?
On Tuesday, four Iran-linked vessels switched on their transponders, showing movement out of the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman — seen as Iran preparing to resume oil exports.
On the Qatar side, at least four empty LNG carriers recently reversed course back toward the Middle East after sitting idle or sailing elsewhere.
This reflects both producing and exporting nations "voting" with fleet movements ahead of the deal.
What does the first mover stand to gain?
Bloomberg notes that higher-risk-appetite first movers could capture the risk premium still attached to the route — whoever locks in a voyage first commands higher freight rates.
In plain terms = entering now is like buying a "first-class ticket" before latecomers dilute the premium.
The key unknowns remain: whether the deal is signed on Friday as planned, and how actual transit order is established once the strait reopens — these decide whether the positioning rush pays off.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.