TD Cowen: Amazon AWS Q2 Growth Expected to Reach 35.5%
Taylor Wilson
TD Cowen projects AWS Q2 revenue growth at 35.5% year-over-year, beating consensus by 3.4 percentage points, driven by an explosion in generative-AI workloads.
Why is AWS growth suddenly jumping?
TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge forecasts AWS Q2 revenue growth at 35.5% YoY, up sharply from 28.4% a year ago. This means → AWS is shifting from steady growth back into acceleration mode.
Two engines behind the jump: rapid expansion of generative-AI workloads — enterprises moving AI tasks onto the cloud — and Amazon's massive prior infrastructure spending finally easing supply bottlenecks.
In plain terms = demand was there before, but capacity wasn't; now the machines have caught up, and revenue follows.
How big is the GenAI revenue surge?
TD Cowen estimates Amazon's Q2 GenAI revenue at $6.9 billion, up 88% quarter-over-quarter and nearly 500% year-over-year.
Roughly $4.6 billion of that comes from Anthropic-related business — Claude API usage, model training revenue, and chatbot services — accounting for two-thirds of AWS GenAI revenue.
This reflects a high concentration of AWS's AI revenue in a single partner line. The upside: strong growth visibility. The risk: heavy dependence on one relationship.
Beyond AWS, how does Amazon look overall?
TD Cowen projects total Q2 revenue at $200.1 billion, up 19.3% YoY, roughly 1% above the high end of company guidance.
North America e-commerce revenue growth is expected to rise from 12.1% in Q1 to 15.1%, driven by faster delivery speeds and growth in everyday-essentials categories.
For Q3, TD Cowen's AWS revenue and operating-profit forecasts sit 0.3% and 3.2% above consensus, respectively — again premised on AI-driven acceleration.
What about the rating and price target?
Blackledge maintains a buy rating on Amazon but trims the price target by roughly 3%, citing the stock's pullback since May.
In plain terms = the analyst's fundamental view hasn't changed; the target moved down only because the stock already fell partway there.
Whether AWS can sustain its acceleration into Q3 is the key validation point for this bullish thesis.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.