TD Cowen: Amazon AWS Q2 Growth Expected to Reach 35.5%
nashnova research
TD Cowen projects AWS Q2 revenue growth at 35.5% year-over-year, beating consensus by 3.4 percentage points, driven by an explosion in generative-AI workloads.
Why is AWS growth suddenly jumping?
TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge forecasts AWS Q2 revenue growth at 35.5% YoY, up sharply from 28.4% a year ago. This means → AWS is shifting from steady growth back into acceleration mode.
Two engines behind the jump: rapid expansion of generative-AI workloads — enterprises moving AI tasks onto the cloud — and Amazon's massive prior infrastructure spending finally easing supply bottlenecks.
In plain terms = demand was there before, but capacity wasn't; now the machines have caught up, and revenue follows.
How big is the GenAI revenue surge?
TD Cowen estimates Amazon's Q2 GenAI revenue at $6.9 billion, up 88% quarter-over-quarter and nearly 500% year-over-year.
Roughly $4.6 billion of that comes from Anthropic-related business — Claude API usage, model training revenue, and chatbot services — accounting for two-thirds of AWS GenAI revenue.
This reflects a high concentration of AWS's AI revenue in a single partner line. The upside: strong growth visibility. The risk: heavy dependence on one relationship.
Beyond AWS, how does Amazon look overall?
TD Cowen projects total Q2 revenue at $200.1 billion, up 19.3% YoY, roughly 1% above the high end of company guidance.
North America e-commerce revenue growth is expected to rise from 12.1% in Q1 to 15.1%, driven by faster delivery speeds and growth in everyday-essentials categories.
For Q3, TD Cowen's AWS revenue and operating-profit forecasts sit 0.3% and 3.2% above consensus, respectively — again premised on AI-driven acceleration.
What about the rating and price target?
Blackledge maintains a buy rating on Amazon but trims the price target by roughly 3%, citing the stock's pullback since May.
In plain terms = the analyst's fundamental view hasn't changed; the target moved down only because the stock already fell partway there.
Whether AWS can sustain its acceleration into Q3 is the key validation point for this bullish thesis.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。