Tech Earnings Lift U.S. Stocks; July CPI Meets Expectations, Cooling Rate Hike Bets
Nashnova编辑部
Four tech firms beat estimates and drove the Nasdaq higher, while July CPI eased to 3.4% year-on-year and core CPI to 2.5% — both in line — pushing the market-implied probability of a September hold from roughly 50% to about 60%, though a Fed official stressed the door to further tightening remains open.
Which stocks drove the rally?
CoreWeave, Lumentum, Super Micro Computer, and Nebius all posted better-than-expected earnings, reigniting AI-trade sentiment and lifting the Nasdaq.
The S&P 500 equal-weight index (RSP) — which gives every constituent the same weighting — rose modestly. This means → the rally was concentrated in a few large-cap tech names, not broad-based.
By sector, real estate, tech, and consumer staples led; consumer discretionary, materials, and communication services lagged.
What did July CPI actually say?
July CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, in line with expectations. June had fallen 0.4% after a 5.7% drop in energy prices; July marked a return to normal.
Year-on-year, headline CPI edged down from 3.5% to 3.4%; core CPI — stripping out food and energy — slipped from 2.6% to 2.5%. Both matched consensus.
In plain terms = inflation is cooling, but slowly — not fast enough to force the Fed to cut, nor hot enough to demand another hike.
Where is the price pressure coming from?
Shelter rose 0.1% month-on-month and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the total monthly increase. This reflects rents and home prices as the most stubborn slice of inflation.
Food was up 0.1%, with dining out up 0.3%; energy fell 1.5%, dragging the headline lower.
Within core items, medical care, airfares, telecom, education, and recreation rose. Motor-vehicle insurance was among the notable decliners.
What will the Fed do in September?
After the CPI release, money markets raised the probability of a September hold from about 50% to roughly 60%, reinforced by last week's softer July payrolls report.
Boston Fed President Collins, however, said the Fed remains prepared to hike if the data warrant it. This means → the policy path is not locked; everything hinges on incoming data.
Before the September 16 FOMC meeting, the market will get one more CPI, one more payrolls report, and the July core PCE — the personal-consumption-expenditures price index the Fed watches most closely. Goldman forecasts July core PCE at 0.23% month-on-month; Pantheon at 0.16%; Oxford Economics at 0.2%.
How did bonds and the dollar react?
The Treasury curve bull-steepened — short-end yields fell more than long-end yields, signaling the market sees near-term hike odds falling.
The 10-year auction tailed versus the prior one but still came in better than recent averages. This means → underlying demand for duration remains intact.
The dollar dipped after the CPI release, then recovered as 2-year yields rebounded. Among G10 currencies, the New Zealand dollar and Swiss franc were the weakest.
Gold up, oil flat — what's the logic?
Energy prices closed roughly flat. Geopolitical signals clashed: Pakistan flagged optimism on extending a 60-day ceasefire, but Iran denied any talks on an extension; both the US and Iran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the outlook murky.
Precious metals extended gains. Falling short-end Treasury yields boosted confidence in a September hold, supporting gold.
In plain terms = oil was caught between "possible ceasefire" and "possible escalation," netting out flat; gold captured the dividend of cooling rate-hike expectations.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.