Tech Stock Momentum Indicator Decline Surpasses Dot-Com Bubble
nashnova research
Morgan Stanley's momentum factor for U.S. tech, media and telecom has plunged roughly 62% from its 12-month high — a deeper drawdown than the same measure suffered during the 2000–2002 dot-com bust — yet tech earnings are still accelerating, a divergence that raises a red flag.
A 62% momentum drop — what does that actually measure?
Morgan Stanley tracks a momentum factor for U.S. tech, media and telecom — essentially a gauge of whether stocks that led the rally keep leading.
That factor has fallen roughly 62% from its 12-month high, according to a Morgan Stanley chart cited by Andreas Steno Larsen, CIO of Steno Global Macro Invest.
This means → the most-chased tech names over the past year are losing their leadership status at an extreme pace; capital is rotating away from the "buy the winners" trade.
Worse than the dot-com bust — yet earnings are still growing?
Larsen noted the current drawdown already exceeds the equivalent momentum pullback during the 2000–2002 dot-com collapse.
The crucial difference: tech-sector fundamental earnings are still accelerating — companies are making more money, not less.
In plain terms = last time momentum collapsed, companies weren't earning; the bubble simply burst. This time companies are still profitable, yet prices are falling first — the price signal and the fundamentals are fighting each other.
What does a second indicator show?
Jeff Weniger, chief investment strategist at Corgi Invest, cited data showing the S&P 500 Momentum Index trailed the broad S&P 500 by 10.6 percentage points over the four weeks ending November 2.
That gap ranks above 99.7% of all observations since 1989.
In plain terms = in over three decades, momentum stocks have almost never underperformed the market this badly.
When has something like this happened before?
Weniger's chart flags three historical clusters of similarly extreme momentum underperformance: the earnings-disappointment phase of the dot-com era, the tail end of the 2000–2002 bear market, and the period around the 2008 U.S. government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
This reflects that rotation pressure on market leaders has reached a rare intensity, on par with several major historical turning points.
This means → a crash replay is not guaranteed, but the market is using real money to reject the logic that "last year's winners keep winning."
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。