Technical Indicators Show Tesla and SpaceX Are Not Yet Oversold, Making It Difficult to Call a Bottom
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The Nasdaq shed roughly $2.5 trillion in a single session, Tesla fell 10.8% and SpaceX dropped 9%, yet technical indicators show neither stock has entered oversold territory — the bottom may still be ahead.
The Nasdaq's record wipeout — how bad was it?
The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on Thursday, erasing roughly $2.5 trillion in market value — the largest single-day loss in the index's history.
Tesla dropped 10.8% on the day; SpaceX fell 9%.
This means → even the biggest names were not spared in a selloff of this scale; investors are hunting for a bottom, but technicals offer no clear answer yet.
What does "oversold" mean — and why aren't we there?
Oversold — a state reached after sustained, rapid selling when bad news is considered fully priced in — is the key signal technical analysts watch for a short-term bottom.
Technical analysts note that both Tesla and SpaceX remain outside oversold territory.
In plain terms = the market has not "fallen enough" by this measure; more down days may lie ahead before a bottom signal appears.
SpaceX's valuation dropped from 900× to 28× — is it cheap now?
When SpaceX went public in June, Wall Street estimated its 2027 EPS at just $0.15, putting its $135 IPO price at roughly 900× earnings.
That 2027 EPS estimate has since risen to $4.35; the current share price implies about 28× forward earnings — below Apple's valuation.
This means → the numbers look dramatically cheaper, but SpaceX has traded for too short a time to establish a historical valuation range — "cheap" has no anchor.
Can analyst price targets still be trusted?
The average analyst target for SpaceX is $256, more than 100% above the recent price.
Price targets typically follow share prices rather than lead them. Downgrades are expected after this selloff.
In plain terms = a target price is more rear-view mirror than GPS; the current premium carries limited reference value.
Why is Tesla's valuation even harder to read?
Tesla's current share price implies roughly 170× its estimated 2027 EPS.
That estimate has shifted wildly — in 2022, the 2027 EPS consensus stood at $8; it has since fallen to roughly $2.
This reflects a market that keeps drastically re-pricing Tesla's long-term earnings; P/E-based anchoring has little meaning here. Technical indicators offer more reference value, yet they too show the stock is not yet oversold.
What is the one mildly positive signal right now?
The Nasdaq Composite has entered correction territory (down more than 10% from its recent high) and its technicals now register as oversold.
In pre-market trading Friday, Tesla rose 1.3% to $348.07; SpaceX gained 4.2% to $128.76.
This means → the broader index's oversold reading could spark a short-term bounce, but Tesla and SpaceX have not triggered their own oversold signals — whether they can stabilize depends on when that signal finally arrives.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。