The 'Greatest Obstacle' to Moser Becoming Fed Chairman Has Been Removed

According to Bloomberg, North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, announced on Sunday that he will withdraw his opposition to the nomination of Wadhwani, paving the way for the committee's scheduled vote on the nomination for April 29.

Previously, the Department of Justice announced the revocation of the criminal investigation into the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, and Tillis stated that this decision allayed his core concerns about a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Wadhwani enjoys broad support among Republican senators, and the Senate Banking Committee has scheduled the nomination vote for April 29. If the committee approves the nomination smoothly, it will be forwarded for a full senate vote, and it is widely expected that the final confirmation timeline will closely coincide with Powell's term expiration on May 15.

Once confirmed, Wadhwani may initiate sweeping reforms. At last week's hearing, he called for the abolition of the "dot plot" and a reexamination of the forward guidance mechanism, which implies that the core framework supporting global asset pricing over the past 15 years faces a fundamental change, and the pricing logic of the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets may undergo a comprehensive reconstruction.

Tillis withdraws opposition, nomination vote scheduled for April 29

Tillis previously held a key vote in the Senate Banking Committee and had explicitly promised to block Wadhwani's nomination as long as Powell was under investigation by federal prosecutors. He characterized this criminal investigation as an attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve, believing that its underlying intention was to force Powell to leave office prematurely.

On Friday, federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro in Washington, D.C., announced on social media that the criminal investigation into the cost overruns of the Federal Reserve's building renovation and Powell's congressional testimony would be abandoned and handed over to the Federal Reserve Inspector General's office for review. Tillis then communicated with the Department of Justice and obtained assurances that the criminal cases against Powell and the Federal Reserve have been "fully and completely settled".

"This was my original concern because I felt that the prosecutor in Washington thought this could be a lever to force Powell to leave early," Tillis said in an interview with NBC. He stated that after receiving assurances from the Department of Justice, he was "ready to move forward with Mr. Wadhwani's confirmation process".

In his statement on Sunday, Tillis referred to Wadhwani as an "outstanding nominee" and said that "it is time for the Federal Reserve to move beyond this distraction and return its full attention to its mission".

Powell's future remains uncertain, Trump leaves room for maneuver

Despite the acceleration of the confirmation process, the uncertainty surrounding Powell has not completely dissipated. Powell's term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve ends on May 15, but his term on the Federal Reserve Board continues until 2028, and the partial withdrawal of cases by the Department of Justice does not guarantee his departure from the Board.

When pressed by reporters on Saturday, Trump said that with Pirro withdrawing the criminal investigation, the confirmation process for Wadhwani "I think should be smooth", but he refused to give Powell a "full go-ahead" statement, citing the ongoing review of renovation costs by the Inspector General of the Federal Reserve, saying "I have an obligation to find out" the reasons behind the cost overruns.

This continued uncertainty means that the pressure from the Trump administration will continue, which could become a reason for Powell to remain on the Board - even if Wadhwani is ultimately confirmed by the Senate.

Wadhwani wants to dismantle forward guidance, asset pricing faces the risk of "anchor loss"

The policy stance of Wadhwani may be more worthy of market attention than his confirmation itself.

At the Senate Banking Committee hearing on April 21st, he clearly called for the abolition of the "dot plot" - this chart, published quarterly, contains interest rate forecasts from the 19 FOMC members - and criticized core PCE as a "rough estimate". He characterized the high inflation from 2021 to