Think Tank Warns: China's Robotics Industry May Replicate EV Disruption Playbook
Nashnova编辑部
A new report from Taipei-based think tank DSET warns that China is deploying its state-backed EV and drone playbook to dominate robotics, with humanoid robot shipments already at ~85% global share; yet high-end chips and precision components remain clear weak spots, and supply-chain leverage will shape the race.
85% shipment share — what does that actually tell us?
Smart Analytics Global data shows China held ~85% of global humanoid-robot and robot-dog shipments in 2025.
This means → on sheer volume, China has already replicated the pattern it set in EVs and drones — where it now commands ~70% of the global market.
But the report notes Chinese robots remain relatively limited in autonomous task execution. In plain terms = shipping the most units is not the same as fielding the most capable machines.
What cards does China hold that others can't easily replace?
The report lists China's core advantages: a massive domestic market, a complete manufacturing ecosystem, vast real-world data, and battery supply-chain dominance — plus control of rare-earth permanent magnets, the key material in advanced robot motors.
For robot developers outside China, the biggest supply-chain dependency is Chinese permanent magnets and upstream battery materials. Western alternatives exist but cost more.
A bottleneck not yet widely recognized: PCBs (printed circuit boards). Lead researcher Nathanael Cheng notes that a single humanoid robot requires roughly 150 PCBs. The U.S. share of global PCB output has fallen from ~30% in the early 2000s to ~4% in 2025.
High-end chips and precision parts — how deep is the gap?
On the chip side, major Chinese robotics firms — Unitree, Agibot, UBtech — all rely on NVIDIA's Jetson Thor platform as their core "brain," leaving a clear dependency on foreign advanced AI chips.
On precision components, China still depends on Japanese and European suppliers for high-end reducers, motors, machine tools, and sensors.
This means → China's overall actuator technology — the modules that drive a robot's joints — is maturing, but the most precise layer of components still must be sourced abroad. That is one of the few supply-chain levers other economies still hold.
How should policy respond — blanket bans or targeted controls?
The report recommends governments phase in procurement requirements favoring non-Chinese suppliers for specific components, and restrict Chinese-made robots in government, critical infrastructure, and defense settings.
But Cheng is explicit: a blanket chip-export ban on Chinese robotics firms is "neither realistic nor practical" and "may not solve the problem."
In plain terms = the playbook is "control the critical nodes selectively," not "lock everything down" — the latter is unworkable in practice.
The U.S. has already moved — what do current restrictions look like?
The U.S. tightened import restrictions on foreign-made advanced robots in late July 2025: new rules ban imports of new models of humanoid robots, quadrupeds, and even robotic vacuum cleaners.
Existing models already on the market may continue to be sold and used; limited imports for testing, research, and product development are still permitted.
This reflects a policy still in "adjust as you go" mode. The report argues that whether PCBs and rare-earth magnets become the next supply-chain battleground will be the key signal for where this physical-AI race is heading.
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