Tianqi Lithium Forecasts Q1-Q3 Net Profit of 5.1-6 Billion Yuan, Surging Over 27-Fold Year-on-Year
nashnova research
Tianqi Lithium (天齐锂业) guided first-three-quarter net profit at 5.1–6.0 billion yuan, a 27-fold-plus year-on-year surge, driven by higher lithium prices and a jump in SQM investment income — though the durability of the latter is the key variable ahead.
A 27× profit jump — how extreme are the numbers?
Net profit attributable to shareholders is guided at 5.1–6.0 billion yuan, up 2,735%–3,235% year-on-year.
Excluding non-recurring items, net profit is 5.03–5.93 billion yuan, up 6,957%–8,220%.
This means → the ex-non-recurring growth far outpaces headline growth, signaling the rebound is driven almost entirely by core operations, not one-off gains.
What's behind a gain this large?
Leg one: lithium prices recovered. Average selling prices for Tianqi's main lithium products rose markedly versus a year ago, lifting revenue and margins directly.
Leg two: SQM investment income. Associate company SQM — one of the world's largest lithium producers — posted sharply higher results in the first three quarters, boosting the investment income Tianqi books from its stake.
In plain terms = one side of the profit comes from selling lithium at better prices; the other comes from a big overseas lithium miner earning more and passing gains back to Tianqi.
Can earnings stay this high?
Tianqi itself flagged the key variable: whether SQM investment income can keep delivering will shape results in coming quarters.
This means → if lithium prices soften again or SQM's earnings pull back, the "second leg" of this profit surge weakens.
In plain terms = the headline numbers are striking, but roughly half the uplift rides on someone else's earnings — whether that line holds is the single most important thing to watch next.
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