Toyota Global Sales Drop 2.9% in September as China Market Declines for Eighth Consecutive Month
nashnova research
Toyota's global sales fell 2.9% in September to 921,847 units, dragged down by an eighth consecutive monthly decline in China where Toyota and Lexus volumes plunged 20% year-on-year.
How big is the global decline?
September sales for Toyota (including Daihatsu) came in at 921,847 units, down 2.9% year-on-year; production fell 4.5% to 989,168 units.
Production dropped faster than sales. This means → Toyota is actively trimming output, not just failing to move inventory.
In plain terms = the factory is tapping the brakes, but dealer-lot pressure may already be building.
Why has China fallen for eight straight months?
Toyota and Lexus sales in China tumbled 20% year-on-year in September — the eighth consecutive monthly decline.
Rising fuel prices suppressed demand for non-EV models, while Chinese domestic brands kept launching feature-rich EVs with the latest in-car software.
This means → Toyota's China problem is not cyclical softness — it is structural share loss, squeezed on both the electrification and smart-cabin fronts simultaneously.
What is keeping Japan and North America growing?
Japan posted a modest 1.8% sales gain in September; North America rose 8.6%.
Both markets benefited from rebounding demand for hybrid-electric vehicles — the technology Toyota pioneered for mass production.
Toyota expects hybrid sales to top 5 million units globally for the first time in 2026. This reflects that outside China, hybrids remain Toyota's strongest competitive moat.
Why did Toyota raise its profit forecast anyway?
In August, Toyota lifted its profit outlook for the fiscal year ending March 2027 to ¥3.4 trillion.
Two drivers: strong U.S. hybrid demand + a weaker yen boosting the value of overseas earnings when converted back.
Toyota had earlier warned of a rare profit decline on fears that Middle East tensions would push up raw-material costs. In plain terms = the yen tailwind and North American hybrid momentum are, for now, papering over the China volume loss and rising input costs.
What comes next?
Whether China can stabilize is the single biggest variable for Toyota's global sales trajectory.
How long the hybrid tailwind lasts in North America depends on oil prices and how fast U.S. consumers warm to full EVs.
This means → Toyota is fighting a "lose the east, bandage the west" battle — if North American hybrid growth slows while China keeps sliding, the profit buffer will narrow fast.
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