Trafigura: AI Hyperscale Data Center Copper Demand Could Triple to 3 Million Tonnes
nashnova research
Trafigura estimates AI infrastructure copper demand could rise from ~1 million tonnes this year to 2.5–3 million tonnes by 2028 if hyperscalers' investment plans fully materialize — but the market is skeptical, pricing in only ~1.6 million tonnes.
Where does the 3-million-tonne figure come from?
Henry Van, Trafigura's head of industrial metals analysis, laid out the math at Bloomberg's 2026 base metals summit: if hyperscalers — the cloud giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon building massive data centers — execute all their announced plans, AI infrastructure copper demand hits 2.5–3 million tonnes by 2028.
This year, that segment accounts for roughly 1 million tonnes — implying a two-to-threefold increase in three years.
Van was explicit: this is not a base-case forecast. It is the implied ceiling if every project ships on schedule. This means → treat it as a maximum, not a probability-weighted outlook.
Does the market believe the ceiling?
Market-implied expectations put 2028 data-center copper demand at roughly 1.6 million tonnes — still up about 60% from today.
In plain terms = the market thinks hyperscalers will deliver a bit more than half of their stated plans. Growth is real, but discounted.
This reflects persistent doubt that hyperscalers can build out on time and at the scale they have announced.
Why do data centers matter so much for copper?
Trafigura chief economist Saad Rahim made the point bluntly: strip out data-center demand, and global copper consumption would decline this year.
This means → data centers are no longer a bonus driver — they are the only source of positive growth in the copper market.
Van added a critical detail: data-center builders are completely price-insensitive — "they don't care about the price of copper at all."
What happens when the buyer doesn't care about price?
Traditional copper buyers — construction, power grids, appliances — cut purchases when prices rise. Data-center builders do not.
This means → demand-side response to price signals is weakening, and nearly all the burden of balancing the market falls on the supply side.
LME benchmark copper futures traded at $14,361 per tonne on Tuesday, off last month's record high of $14,875. Trafigura expects elevated prices to push supply up by roughly 2 million tonnes next year.
Where is the key uncertainty?
Whether hyperscalers execute their investment plans on schedule is the single biggest variable determining if copper demand reaches the optimistic ceiling.
In plain terms = the medium-term copper price story is really a data-center construction-speed story — fast buildout means tight supply; slow buildout means 1.6 million tonnes is the reality.
Supply is responding (roughly +2 million tonnes next year), but if demand truly heads toward 3 million tonnes, the gap remains significant.
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