Treasury Yields Rise Across the Board Ahead of Fed Decision as Tech Stocks Rally on AI Earnings Expectations
nashnova research
On the eve of the Fed rate decision, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5% with markets almost fully pricing a hold; meanwhile SK Hynix's blowout results lifted global AI stocks, shifting focus to Chair Warsh's press conference and after-hours reports from Microsoft and Alphabet.
Yields are rising — but the decision is priced in, so what's moving?
The 10-year yield hit 5.0134%, up over 2 bp; the 30-year rose to 5.3200% and the 2-year to 4.7494%.
Money-market pricing puts a 90.6% probability on a hold, while the odds of a 25 bp hike in December have climbed to 76.5%.
This means → the decision itself holds no surprise. Yields are rising because traders are positioning for December and parsing what Warsh will signal tonight.
The Warsh press conference — what is the market really watching?
ING's global head of markets, Chris Turner, argues Warsh is unlikely to cite "tightening financial conditions" as a reason to pause.
The reason: Warsh already learned from the July press conference that rattled markets.
In plain terms = last time he misspoke, markets lurched. This time he will be more guarded — but the more guarded he is, the more weight every subtle word choice will carry.
One SK Hynix earnings beat — why did it lift the entire global AI trade?
SK Hynix posted strong results; its stock jumped 11%, pulling Korea's Kospi up 6.6%.
This means → markets had been nervous that the AI capex boom was cooling. This single report eased that core anxiety.
The rally spread to the U.S.: Nasdaq futures rose 0.4%, Micron gained 3.85% pre-market; Japan's Nikkei 225 added 1.1%, and Hong Kong and Shanghai also traded higher.
Microsoft and Alphabet report after the bell — what is the market auditing?
Both companies release earnings today; the key question is whether massive AI spending is translating into actual revenue.
WisdomTree strategist Mobeen Tahir said continued solid data from hyperscalers would show AI investment remains sustainable even as rates stay elevated.
In plain terms = they've spent billions building AI infrastructure — is any of it earning money yet? That answer will decide whether the AI trade has legs.
Oil, the dollar, gold, bitcoin — how are other assets moving?
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued; Brent crude rose over 1% in early European trade, topping $115 a barrel.
The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. has warned Gulf states it may launch a short, intensive military operation after the midterm elections — a fresh risk for regional energy markets.
The dollar index strengthened, gold pulled back toward $4,000 an ounce, and bitcoin traded near $81,400, buoyed by the tech rally.
How packed is today's macro calendar?
The UK Chancellor will deliver the budget at 12:30 GMT; gilt and sterling moves are in focus.
The Bank of Canada also announces its rate decision the same day.
This reflects a rare stacking of central-bank and fiscal events on a single session — Warsh's language, especially the relative weight he gives inflation versus financial conditions, will be the pivotal variable for the near-term shape of the Treasury curve.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。