TrendForce: Huawei and Cambricon to Capture 56% of China's AI Server Chip Market by 2026
Alina Collins
TrendForce projects Huawei and Cambricon will capture 56% of China's AI server chip market in 2026; combined with in-house ASICs from internet giants, domestic solutions will approach 80% — a systematic displacement of Nvidia.
What does 56% actually tell us?
Huawei, Cambricon and other domestic chip vendors held 46% of China's AI server chip market in 2025. That is forecast to reach 56% in 2026 — a 10-percentage-point jump in one year.
This means → domestic chips are no longer the fallback. They are the default choice — more than half the market has already switched.
Add the 23% share expected from ASICs — chips custom-built for specific tasks — designed in-house by China's internet companies, and domestic solutions will approach 80%.
How much room does Nvidia have left?
Nvidia, AMD and other foreign vendors are projected to fall from a combined 34% in 2025 to 21% in 2026 — a drop of roughly 13 percentage points.
In plain terms = two years ago Nvidia was China's default AI chip. Now its share is below one quarter, and still falling.
Whether it stabilizes near 21% depends on two variables: further tightening of export controls, and how fast domestic chips close the performance gap.
Who is driving this substitution?
TrendForce research manager Frank Kung said at a company conference in Shenzhen that geopolitical uncertainty and Beijing's push for tech self-reliance are accelerating adoption of domestic processors.
On the demand side, China's top internet companies are the main force — rapidly scaling deployment of chips from Huawei and Cambricon.
This reflects a shift that is not just policy-driven. Companies are choosing proactively to de-risk their supply chains rather than wait for the next round of restrictions.
How is the in-house chip path shaping up?
Chinese internet companies' in-house ASIC share is set to rise from 20% in 2025 to 23% in 2026. Kung said "this segment will continue to expand."
This means → the largest buyers are not content to purchase from domestic vendors alone — they are building their own, following the path of Google's TPU and Amazon's Trainium.
In plain terms = China's AI chip market is shifting from "Nvidia dominance" to a two-track structure: domestic vendors plus in-house silicon.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.