Trump Backs Warsh, Markets Price In September Rate Hike
nashnova research
Trump publicly backed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, but Warsh himself struck a hawkish tone — rate futures now price a better than 60% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in September, pushing the White House's rate-cut hopes further from reality.
Why is Trump publicly backing Warsh right now?
The Fed just held rates steady for the second time, keeping the benchmark at 3.50%–3.75% with no cut.
Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that Warsh "is a smart man" who "would love to see lower rates," but his committee "wants to keep rates high."
This means → Trump is shifting blame for the no-cut outcome onto the Fed's committee, not onto Warsh personally — giving the chair he hand-picked political cover.
What did Warsh actually say?
At his press conference, Warsh was explicit: when the labor market is roughly at equilibrium and underlying inflation is rising, any central banker "would be more inclined to tighten."
In plain terms = Warsh is saying price pressures have not faded, so hiking makes more sense than cutting — the direct opposite of what Trump wants.
Adding weight: three committee members voted in favor of a hike at this meeting, signaling the hawkish wing is no longer a fringe voice.
What is the market betting on?
Rate futures now show a better than 60% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September meeting.
This means → the market's base case has flipped from "hold" to "hike."
This reflects a bigger signal: despite repeated White House pressure for cuts, the market is trusting the Fed's hawkish guidance over the president's rhetoric.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。