Trump Calls for Long-Term Blockade of Iran Amidst Rejection of New Proposal

Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi submitted a new proposal to the US via Pakistan on April 28, expressing willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the condition that the US lifts its blockade and ends the war, but postponing nuclear issues until after the war.

The US Secretary of State Rubio argued that Iran's so-called "opening of the strait" is merely about requiring countries to pay a fee and obtain permission from Iran to pass, which is not the same as being open. CNN cited sources saying that Trump was dissatisfied with the proposal, believing that lifting the blockade without resolving the nuclear issue would lose leverage in negotiations.

On the same day, Trump posted on social media that Iran is in a "collapsing state" and hopes that the US will promptly open the strait. According to US media reports, President Trump has told his aides to prepare for a long-term blockade of Iran.

"Double Blockade" of the Strait, Shipping Nearly Halted

Since the US military's maritime blockade of Iranian ports on April 13, the strait has formed a "double blockade"—the US blocks Iranian ports, and Iran blocks the passage through the strait—reducing shipping volume to nearly zero.

Xinhua News Agency reported that more than 15 US warships are in place, and several NATO allies have explicitly stated they do not support the blockade. Saudi Arabia urged the US to abandon the blockade and return to the negotiation table, fearing Iran's retaliatory blockade of the Mandeb Strait. UN Secretary-General Guterres warned that the stalemate could trigger a global food emergency.

Oil Prices Soar, Supply Shock Intensifies

Brent crude oil rose to $111.57 per barrel, hitting a new high since March, and has increased by about 75% compared to the start of the war. WTI oil broke through $99, rising for seven consecutive days and approaching the psychological threshold of $100.

Goldman Sachs estimated that the conflict has led to a daily decrease of approximately 14.5 million barrels in global output. The average retail price of gasoline in the US has risen to $4.17 per gallon, climbing significantly from less than $3 before the war. The IEA warned that the current situation could constitute an "unprecedented supply shock."

Trump's Approval Rating Falls to 34%

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that only 34% of Americans approve of Trump's performance in office, marking a new low for his second term. Only 22% approve of his performance on the cost of living.

Nate Silver's aggregate data indicates that net approval ratings have fallen to -18.8, comparable to the levels after the "January 6th Capitol incident" at the end of his first term. A Marquette University survey shows that only 32% of voters support the war on Iran, and within the Republican Party, support is only at 65%. Pressure from the November midterm elections has surged.