Trump: Ceasefire Has Ended, U.S.-Iran Negotiations Will Continue
N.R. Finch
Trump declared the U.S.–Iran ceasefire over on July 11 while agreeing to resume talks — days after U.S. strikes hit over 170 Iranian military targets, leaving Strait of Hormuz transit risk as the market's key variable.
What exactly did Trump say?
Trump posted on Truth Social: Iran requested continued talks, the U.S. agreed — but "the ceasefire is over!"
This means → he sent two opposite signals at once — willing to talk, but not willing to stop shooting — keeping the military option live.
In plain terms = the negotiating table stays up, but the gun under the table stays loaded.
What did the U.S. military hit, and why?
On Tuesday and Wednesday, U.S. forces struck over 170 military targets inside Iran — the Pentagon called it the most intensive wave since the war began.
Washington's stated reason: retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
On Thursday the U.S. did not launch a third consecutive overnight strike, but Trump's statement means the military option remains active.
Can talks still move forward?
Diplomatic sources say Qatari mediators met Iranian officials on July 11, coordinated by Washington, aiming to de-escalate and create conditions for resumed negotiations.
The source said both sides "clearly want to return to the memorandum-of-understanding framework" — a preliminary agreement framework short of a formal treaty.
Axios reports the next round of U.S.–Iran talks is expected next week, possibly in Switzerland.
What does this mean for markets?
The core contradiction: the ceasefire has nominally lapsed, yet talks continue — two tracks running in parallel.
This means → Strait of Hormuz transit risk has not cleared; whether talks produce real progress is the key variable for oil prices and shipping costs.
In plain terms = as long as the "fight and talk at the same time" posture holds, markets cannot price strait risk — the uncertainty itself is the biggest risk.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.