Trump Denies Talks Timeline, Crude Oil Returns to $100

The struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran is陷入了 a high-stakes game of chicken.

As peace talks hit a wall and the maritime double blockade continues to escalate, this geopolitical conflict is rapidly evolving from a confrontation on military and diplomatic fronts into a protracted test of the global energy supply chain and economic resilience.

US President Trump explicitly stated on the 22nd that there is currently "no timetable" for ending the conflict with Iran, and there is no need to rush.

This statement further reinforced market expectations for the long-termization of the conflict.

According to media reports, due to Iran's refusal to send a delegation at the last minute, US Vice President JD Vance's trip to Islamabad to restart negotiations was indefinitely postponed, completely shattering market expectations for a short-term agreement.

The political stalemate quickly translates into an impact on energy supply expectations.

As a result, Brent crude prices have risen for three consecutive trading days and broken through $101 per barrel, while the near-month futures prices for WTI crude not only recovered previous losses but also rose above the level before the breakdown of talks.

The signals from the spot market are even more tense: spot Brent crude prices have risen above $107, and US gasoline prices have reached a near four-year high, indicating that the market has begun to factor in the risk of short-term supply shortages.

Despite the ceasefire agreement being extended on the military front, the confrontation between the two sides in the economic and shipping sectors continues to escalate.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transportation, remains blocked, not only exacerbating concerns about energy supply but also significantly increasing the risk of global supply chain disruption and a renewed uptick in inflation.

Negotiations Stalled and Indefinite Pressure

After the breakdown in talks, urgent consultations took place within the White House.

According to media reports, Trump and his security team, including JD Vance, assessed multiple options, including resuming bombings. Ultimately, Trump chose to extend the ceasefire and maintain economic pressure on Iran until Tehran proposes a specific negotiation plan.

Trump, in an interview with Fox News, denied rumors of a "3 to 5 day window" for the ceasefire extension, emphasizing that there is "no time pressure" on the ceasefire, and refuted claims that he is eager to end the conflict due to midterm elections.

Iran regards the US blockade as a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pointed out that blocking Iranian ports and attacking commercial vessels are violations of the ceasefire agreement.

Due to the US's continuous tightening of port blockades, Iranian hardliners refuse to return to the negotiation table under continued pressure.

The Double Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

Outside the negotiation table, both sides are using maritime blockades to vie for negotiation leverage.

The US maintains a naval blockade around Iranian ports, aiming to cut off the country's crude oil export revenue.

The US continues to intercept ships entering and leaving Iranian ports.US Central Command data shows that since the blockade began, the US military has instructed 28 vessels to turn around or return to port.

At the same time, the US military also boarded a sanctioned crude oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, continuing to combat the "shadow fleet" that assists Iran in evading sanctions.

In retaliation, Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, restricting the passage of almost all