Trump Leans Toward Expanding Military Operations Against Iran, Oil Prices Edge Higher
Miles Bennett
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump is leaning toward escalating military action against Iran — options range from seizing islands to bombing an underground nuclear site — with oil prices and Republican midterm prospects both at stake if diplomacy fails.
What military options are on the table?
Intensified airstrikes, building on five consecutive days of bombing already under way.
Ground forces to seize Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz, including Kharg Island and other coastal territory.
Bombing "Pickaxe Mountain" — a tunnel complex tied to Iran's nuclear program, buried 90 to 145 meters deep inside granite bedrock.
This means → the three options escalate in severity; the last one targets Iran's nuclear capability directly and would mark a qualitative shift in the conflict.
Why is "Pickaxe Mountain" so hard to hit?
The tunnel complex sits far deeper than Iran's known Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities; whether existing U.S. bunker-busting bombs can destroy it remains an open question.
In plain terms = America's biggest hammer may not punch through this mountain.
This reflects a hard constraint: the military option is not simply a matter of political will — technical feasibility is itself a bottleneck.
Where is diplomacy stuck?
Washington demanded Iran hand over its nuclear stockpile. Tehran has not budged.
A temporary ceasefire had briefly lifted the blockade and paused sanctions on Iranian oil sales, but Iran then attacked ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump declared the ceasefire over.
Vice President Vance stated publicly: "We're not just going to bomb indiscriminately — we'll use military force as one of several tools to solve the problem."
This means → the White House frames escalation as leverage to force Iran back to the table, but raising the stakes also raises the risk of losing control.
How is oil reacting so far?
WTI crude settled up 0.3% at $79.60 a barrel; Brent rose 0.3% to $84.95 — a modest move for now.
John Deal, managing director of capital markets at Post Oak Group, called the U.S. proposal to impose a 20% fee on ships transiting the Strait a negotiating tactic.
"I think both sides are pretty exhausted," he said. "The question is finding an off-ramp where both can claim they won."
What happens if this escalates for real?
Trump has not made a final decision, but approval would open the most dangerous phase of a conflict now nearly five months old.
Higher oil prices would feed directly into U.S. inflation, creating a drag on Republican midterm election strategy.
In plain terms = military escalation is a double-edged sword — external pressure on Iran comes with a domestic political bill that compounds in parallel.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.