Trump Says He'd Rather Terminate USMCA but 'Might Also Sign'
Alina Collins
Trump told reporters in Paris he'd prefer to let the USMCA expire — yet didn't rule out renewal — pushing the deal that cushioned America from the worst trade-war damage into deep uncertainty and forcing North American supply-chain firms to reprice risk.
What exactly did Trump say?
He said he'd "rather have it not be signed, have it terminated" — then added "I might also sign it." This means → he treats USMCA as a bargaining chip, not a settled framework.
He explained he only pushed USMCA because "there was no way to get out of NAFTA," which he called "the worst trade deal ever made."
In plain terms = Trump sees USMCA not as a goal but as a stopgap that replaced something worse — and one he can discard at will.
What does the July 1 deadline mean?
On July 1 the USMCA enters a mandatory joint review. All three countries must decide whether to renew for another long-term cycle.
Missing the date does not kill the deal outright. Instead it shifts into annual rolling review — a far milder outcome than formal withdrawal.
Formal withdrawal requires six months' notice, and Trump has not started that process. This means → July 1 is not a cliff, but missing it locks the deal into a state of year-by-year uncertainty.
Where do the negotiations stand?
The U.S. is taking a bilateral track: talks with Mexico are underway, but formal talks with Canada have not begun.
Multiple parties expect all three nations to miss the July 1 deadline — Canada has not even sat down at the table yet.
This reflects a harder reality: U.S.–Canada relations have been under sustained pressure, with officials clashing repeatedly on trade in recent months. The negotiating foundation is far weaker than with Mexico.
How is Canada responding?
Prime Minister Carney called for a "Fortress North America" at the G7 summit in France, signaling he still values the North American trade framework.
But the slogan outpaces reality — no schedule for formal U.S.–Canada trade talks even exists.
In plain terms = Canada wants to keep the framework alive, but the U.S. isn't ready to negotiate with it yet.
What does this mean for markets?
USMCA is precisely one of the key reasons the U.S. economy weathered trade-war shocks better than economists expected — it preserved the basic North American supply-chain framework.
If the deal's fate stays unresolved, autos and other industries dependent on North American supply chains face rising uncertainty.
This means → the signal to watch is not Trump's rhetoric but whether U.S.–Canada talks formally begin around July — that is the real indicator of where this deal is headed.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.