Trump Says U.S.-Iran Deal to Be Signed Sunday, Strait of Hormuz to Reopen
Miles Bennett
Trump announced a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding will be signed Sunday, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to all nations with no money changing hands. This means → the single largest geopolitical premium on global oil prices since the February blockade may be about to unwind.
What does this deal actually cover?
The core framework is "open the strait first, negotiate nukes later." Reopening Hormuz comes first; substantive nuclear arrangements are deferred to a separate negotiation 60 days after signing.
This means → both sides parked the hardest question and agreed on a first move each can accept to buy breathing room.
On nuclear materials, Trump said the U.S. will be allowed to enter Iran, remove, down-blend, and destroy nuclear material — on Iranian or American soil. But this commitment, too, falls under the 60-day follow-on talks.
Trump added a warning: "If negotiations fail, we have the ultimate fallback." In plain terms = the military option stays on the table.
How is the money question resolved?
Trump stated explicitly that "no money will change hands," but Iran's core negotiating demand is immediate access to frozen funds — a direct clash.
According to Bloomberg, if the deal proceeds smoothly, the U.S. will partially lift sanctions, potentially giving Iran access to tens of billions of dollars in frozen assets and a gradual return to the global economy.
This means → Trump's "no money" refers to no direct payout on signing day, but the downstream effect of sanctions relief could far exceed that framing.
Have oil prices and markets already moved?
WTI July crude fell to its lowest since April; Brent August hit a three-month-plus low — the market began pricing in a deal before any signature.
Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau wrote that confirmation would remove a major macro tail risk, benefiting European equities and cyclical laggards most.
In plain terms = the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments before the conflict; the blockade raised everyone's energy bill. Reopening would deflate that premium.
What practical obstacles remain before the strait reopens?
Washington says Iran laid mines in the strait. Britain and France have volunteered to lead a coalition to clear them, with U.S. support.
Iran insists on retaining partial control over the waterway and demands immediate access to frozen funds upon signing — both points clash directly with U.S. positions.
This reflects the fact that reopening is not as simple as signing a document; mine clearance, sovereignty disputes, and funding conditions could each slow the process.
Will this deal actually get signed?
Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif said both sides expect to sign within 24 hours and that Pakistan is preparing for an electronic signing. Iran, however, denied any fixed timeline, saying only that it does not rule out signing in the coming days.
Bloomberg Economics defense director Becca Wasser warned that any deal kicking the hardest issues down the road leaves both sides with "a nominally fragile ceasefire" that can be tested at any moment.
Foundation for Defense of Democracies CEO Mark Dubowitz cautioned that Iran may exploit the step-by-step mechanism — "agree to A, get paid; agree to B, get paid; then stall indefinitely."
This means → Trump has claimed deals were imminent before and none materialized. Whether Iran accepts a starting point with no immediate cash remains the biggest unknown for Sunday.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.