Trump Sets Red Line, US-Iran Nuclear Talks on the Brink of Collapse

The fifth round of US-Iran nuclear talks has reached a severe impasse. Trump clearly stated at the White House Cabinet meeting on the 27th that the US is "not satisfied" with the current negotiation process and directly pointed out two paths: "either we reach an agreement, or we finish the job ourselves," implying that military means are not ruled out.

On core issues, Trump explicitly ruled out the possibility of lifting sanctions in exchange for Iran abandoning its high-enriched uranium reserves, emphasizing that Iran abandoning high-enriched uranium "is by no means a trade-off for sanctions relief." This stance clearly diverges from the common expectations for the negotiation framework and will severely narrow the political space within Iran to accept the agreement.

On the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump completely denied the potential mechanism of co-management of the strait by Iran and Oman. Previously, Iranian media disclosed a so-called "preliminary informal document," stating that the US would lift the "maritime blockade" on Iran and withdraw some military forces, with the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to be jointly coordinated and managed by Iran and Oman. The White House immediately posted on platform X to refute, stating that the memorandum was "completely fabricated."

It is noteworthy that, according to media reports, some parts of the draft exposed by Iranian media bear a certain similarity to the descriptions of US officials on the progress of the negotiations. US officials have indicated that as long as Iran allows commercial vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is willing to consider lifting the blockade.

Iran's stance is equally tough. The head of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee stated on May 28th that Iran will not back down due to Trump's rhetoric and will adhere to three red lines in the negotiations: uranium enrichment capabilities and stocks, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of sanctions. The high overlap of both sides' red lines leaves very limited room for negotiation.

Negotiation pressure also comes from within Washington. The Republican hawks are deeply concerned about Trump possibly signing a "bad deal," with Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker warning that Trump is facing a crucial moment in defining his political legacy and "should not pursue a worthless agreement." Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized the current negotiation framework as being identical to that of the Obama era, a remark that sparked a fierce counterattack from White House Director of Strategic Response Steven Cheung.

Mona Yacoubian, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out that the current situation has increased the pressure on Trump to reach some sort of solution, but how to reach an agreement without making Iran seem to have the upper hand will be an extremely difficult task. Amid dual pressures from domestic hawks and rising oil prices, the final direction of US-Iran negotiations remains shrouded in mystery.