Trump Team Concludes China Violated Trade Deal but Chooses to Stay Silent
Miles Bennett
The Trump administration has internally concluded that China is breaching the Busan trade deal's rare-earth commitments, yet is staying quiet to protect the September state visit by Xi Jinping and avoid reigniting the trade war — a silence Beijing may be reading as leverage.
What did the Busan deal promise, and where did it break down?
Last year's U.S.–China trade agreement in Busan, South Korea had one core aim: reopen China's supply of rare earths and critical minerals to American firms — raw materials essential for cars, fighter jets, and more.
Bloomberg reports that White House and USTR staff privately acknowledge Beijing is not honoring the American understanding of the deal.
China denies any breach, saying its rare-earth export controls comply with international rules — and accuses the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by restricting Chinese companies.
This means → The two sides disagree on what the deal even says. American negotiators never secured written, specific commitments on mineral supply — leaving interpretation entirely in Beijing's hands.
If Washington knows, why stay silent?
Insiders describe a "culture of silence" inside the Trump trade team since Busan: officials grumble privately, but the administration will not criticize China publicly.
Two fears drive the quiet: ① Trump himself is unwilling to raise anything that could jeopardize Xi Jinping's September state visit; ② officials worry that pressure could push Beijing to roil markets before the November midterms or cut off mineral supply entirely.
In plain terms = The White House is doing political math — the optics of a state visit and pre-election market calm outweigh rare-earth access, at least for now.
Talks stall — so companies go it alone?
Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer held roughly six meetings with Chinese counterparts over the past year to resolve critical-material procurement. Every request was rebuffed.
Companies are stepping in themselves: Applied Materials sent executives to Beijing to ask why supplies stopped flowing; Coherent CEO Jim Anderson traveled to China during Trump's earlier visit to push for resumed shipments.
A survey last month by the U.S.–China Business Council found rare-earth access "operationally unstable" — with lengthy, opaque licensing, delays, and some materials "virtually unobtainable."
This means → When government-to-government channels fail and firms must lobby one by one, the deal's enforcement mechanism is effectively dead.
Is the U.S. doing nothing at all?
Not entirely: the Defense Department updated its list of entities aiding China's military in June, adding Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD; the FCC announced a series of actions targeting Chinese firms.
But none of these moves touch the rare-earth issue directly — they amount to pressure on other fronts, not a response to the supply breach.
This reflects an awkward reality: U.S. alternatives in the rare-earth supply chain are not yet mature enough to make confrontation cheaper than silence.
Can the September summit change anything?
A USTR official stated in an internal meeting that rare earths will be the top agenda item at the September summit. Some officials see it as a window to correct course.
Others worry the opposite: months of silence may already signal to Beijing that it can extract further concessions — China is testing how far it can push.
In plain terms = September is a stress test for this trade truce. If the U.S. still cannot secure black-and-white mineral-supply commitments, the deal is just a ceasefire statement with no binding force.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.