Two Key Milestones for SpaceX Post-IPO: Nasdaq 100 Inclusion and Lock-Up Expiry
Miles Bennett
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 with a paper valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, yet only 4.3% of shares are freely tradable — the supply-demand mismatch around two upcoming windows will define how far this stock runs in the short term.
Why is the float so thin?
SpaceX's Class A offering represents just 4.3% of total market cap. This means → the open-market supply is extremely scarce, and any sizable buy order can move the price sharply.
Index-rebalancing firm Intropic estimates that 15 trading days after listing, passive funds will hold roughly 30% of the float; under the old, slower inclusion rules the figure would be just 4%.
In plain terms = index funds must buy, but there is almost nothing on the shelf — that is the starting point of every trade that follows.
July 7: how high can passive inflows push the price?
July 7 is the 15th trading day post-IPO. The Nasdaq-100 formally adds SpaceX that day, forcing Vanguard, FTSE Russell and other index funds to build positions on the open market.
Estimated passive demand sits between $8 billion and $18 billion, clustering near $15 billion.
Former Wall Street analyst Alexandra Mertz, citing a Grok model scenario, projects the stock could surge to $275–$300 — more than double the IPO price — because early shareholders remain locked up and free float hits its lowest point.
This reflects a self-reinforcing loop: passive buying lifts the price, and the rising price draws in more sentiment-driven capital.
Late July lock-up: is the 30% sell-off real?
The lock-up expiry is tied to the Q2 earnings call, with the window expected around July 22 or 29. Market chatter puts the unlock at 30% of early insider shares.
But Alexandra Mertz highlights a widely overlooked detail: roughly 50% of early insider stock belongs to Musk himself, and his shares carry a strict 366-day lock-up.
This means → the shares actually hitting the open market amount to only 10%–15%, far less than the headline 30%.
Will the big holders sell?
Ron Baron has stated publicly he will not sell a single share and plans to buy another $1 billion on the open market.
BlackRock has signaled its intent to purchase $5–$10 billion at the IPO.
Grok's extreme-sell scenario: even if every early holder except Musk dumps on day one, quarterly index-rebalancing demand still provides a floor around $150.
In plain terms = the largest potential seller isn't selling, the most committed buyer is adding — and the worst-case floor sits above the IPO price.
The "Goldilocks script": a SpaceX–Tesla merger?
Musk must exercise his 2018 Tesla compensation options by August 15, triggering a personal tax event of roughly $7 billion.
A scenario circulating on the Street: between the Nasdaq inclusion and the earnings-window unlock, SpaceX and Tesla announce an all-stock, equal-value merger. If passive flows push SpaceX's market cap toward $3 trillion, the merger could lift Tesla to the same level, easing Musk's tax-funding pressure.
This scenario has no official confirmation and remains market speculation.
What signal hides in the underwriter lineup?
SpaceX made the unusual choice of Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan as lead underwriters — all three voted against Tesla's compensation package and its redomiciliation to Texas.
Alexandra Mertz suggests this may be about locking in institutional support ahead of a potential merger vote at Tesla's November shareholder meeting.
This signals an undercurrent: whether the logic connecting these two dates holds up will be tested at the November meeting.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.