Two Major Middle East Oil Chokepoints Under Threat Simultaneously, Brent Crude Breaks Above $90
Claire Weston
The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea's Bab al-Mandab are both under blockade threat simultaneously. Brent crude topped $90 a barrel on Wednesday — the two main arteries of global oil shipping are narrowing at once, and the risk premium is unlikely to fade soon.
How far has Hormuz traffic fallen?
Ship-tracking firm Kpler recorded just 12 vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday — less than one-tenth of pre-conflict levels.
Of those, 10 sailed Iran-designated routes; the other 2 took undisclosed paths. This means → even the ships still transiting are largely under Iranian control. Free navigation has effectively ceased.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it struck 3 tankers on "illegal routes" but gave no locations. In plain terms = Iran is using military force to turn the strait into its own toll booth.
Why is the Red Sea alternative also at risk?
Saudi Arabia had been piping crude to Red Sea ports for loading, bypassing Hormuz. This was global oil's "backup lane."
But the Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi Red Sea ports on July 20, putting the alternative route under threat too. This means → both chokepoints are narrowing at the same time, leaving virtually no short-term detour for global oil shipments.
The Houthis claimed they hit a Saudi tanker on Tuesday; actual damage is unclear. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) logged a ship captain reporting an explosion, but confirmed the vessel and crew were safe.
What is happening to traffic through Bab al-Mandab?
Since July 20, vessel traffic through Bab al-Mandab has dropped by one-fifth. War-risk insurers now refuse to cover ships loading at Saudi ports.
On Tuesday 41 ships passed through the strait, but 4 switched off their position transponders — this reflects persistently high risk-avoidance among shipowners. Kpler warned: "A rise in traffic should not be misread as a drop in risk."
For context, 355 crude tankers transited Bab al-Mandab in June, up more than 50% from 197 in February — the route had been absorbing diverted Hormuz traffic. In plain terms = the backup lane was just getting busy when it, too, came under threat.
Can diplomacy break the deadlock?
The U.S. and Iran exchanged missile strikes again on Wednesday. No sign of de-escalation.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated explicitly that Iran considers the war a full victory only when the Strait of Hormuz returns to "its previous status" — and asserted Iran's right to charge fees for allowing ships through.
This means → Iran is not merely blockading; it is converting control of the strait into a bargaining chip. Until diplomacy produces a substantive breakthrough, transit risk on both waterways will persist, and whether the oil-price risk premium can ease remains the market's central variable.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.