U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise to Near Two-Month High

Mortgage rates in the United States increased once again last week, casting a shadow over the spring real estate market recovery.

According to data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday, as of the week ending May 15, the 30-year fixed mortgage contract rate rose by 10 basis points to 6.56%, marking a high not seen in nearly seven weeks, just a hair's breadth away from the phase peak of 6.57% established after the Iranian war broke out in March. Since the Iranian war erupted at the end of February, this rate has accumulated an increase of nearly 50 basis points.

The rise in interest rates directly suppressed demand for home purchases. The MBA home purchase application index fell by 4.1% for the week, marking the largest single-week drop since the week of March 20; the total volume of mortgage applications decreased by 2.3% month-over-month, falling to a five-week low. It is noteworthy that about 10% of applicants chose adjustable-rate mortgages due to their interest rates being about 80 basis points lower than the 30-year fixed rate.

The core driving force behind the upward interest rates comes from the bond market. Conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up energy prices, intensifying inflationary concerns. Over the past week, global bond markets suffered from selling, with the US 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level in 19 years, and the 10-year Treasury yield also setting a new high since January 2025. Real-time data released by Mortgage News Daily on Tuesday showed that the 30-year fixed rate had risen to 6.75%.

On the monetary policy front, the situation is equally fraught with uncertainty. This Thursday, Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, replacing Jerome Powell, who was criticized by Trump for a long time. Although Trump stated this week that he would allow Warsh to independently decide the direction of interest rates, and Warsh also told Congress last month that he made no commitments to the president, the financial market is currently widely betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. Some Fed officials even worry that rising oil prices may more broadly transmit to inflation, and at that time, a rate hike may not be ruled out.

The sustained increase in mortgage rates has already threatened the recovery momentum of the spring housing market. Previous data showed that new home sales in March were the strongest of the year, and data from the National Association of Realtors also showed that the secondary home purchase volume in April reached a five-month high, and the market is brewing for a recovery. Whether this positive trend can be maintained if the pressure of interest rates continues remains highly uncertain.