U.S. and Eurozone October Final PMIs Both Revised Lower
nashnova research
S&P Global revised down final October PMIs for both the US and eurozone, showing expansion losing momentum on both sides of the Atlantic while inflation pressures climbed — a contradiction that will dominate the next rate decisions by the Fed and ECB.
How much did the US numbers slip?
The US October composite PMI final came in at 55.9, down from a flash reading of 57.6 and below September's 58.4.
Services PMI was cut too: final at 56.1, down from a flash 57.9 and September's 58.8.
This means → the "strong economy" story the flash data told was overstated; activity cooled noticeably in the second half of the month.
In plain terms = the economy is still expanding (anything above 50), but slower than the first estimate suggested.
What happened in the eurozone?
The eurozone October composite PMI final fell to 51.7 from September's 53.1 — a four-month low, also below the flash estimate of 51.9.
Services PMI dropped to 51.4 from 53.0, matching the four-month low.
New orders barely grew, a sharp pullback from three consecutive months of solid gains; export orders stayed positive for a third month but also slowed.
This means → the slowdown is broad-based — manufacturing and services are both losing speed at the same time.
The economy is slowing — why are prices rising?
Eurozone input-cost inflation hit a five-month high; firms raised prices sharply, though slightly less than in September.
S&P Global chief business economist Chris Williamson pointed to rising energy prices as the main cost driver.
This reflects a difficult combination: growth decelerating while costs accelerate — a pattern economists call near-stagflation pressure.
In plain terms = consumers' budgets are being squeezed by energy bills, dampening spending, yet businesses still need to raise prices to cover costs.
Which eurozone countries are weakest?
France performed worst: after a brief rebound in September, it fell back into contraction territory (PMI below 50).
Germany, Italy, Spain, and Ireland stayed in expansion, but all lost momentum.
Employment edged down in October; services-sector job cuts partly offset marginal hiring in manufacturing.
Business confidence weakened for a third straight month and remained below its long-run average — firms are growing more pessimistic.
What will the central banks do next?
The ECB held rates steady last week, but economists polled by Reuters widely expect another rate hike in December.
Synchronized PMI downgrades in the US and eurozone mean both central banks face the same dilemma: slowing growth plus stubborn inflation.
This means → raising rates risks deepening the slowdown; holding steady risks letting inflation entrench further.
This set of PMI data will be the central input when both the Fed and ECB meet next.
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