U.S. Average Gasoline Price Falls for Six Consecutive Weeks to $3.85, Down 15% from May Peak
Miles Bennett
U.S. gasoline has fallen for a sixth straight week to $3.85 per gallon, now 15% below its May peak, as easing U.S.–Iran tensions loosened crude-supply fears — but refinery outages and hurricane season keep the supply picture fragile.
How far has the price dropped — and where did it drop most?
The national average hit $3.85 per gallon on Monday, down 14.1 cents from a week earlier and 15% off the May peak.
Colorado led the weekly decline at 25 cents/gallon; Arizona fell 22 cents, Ohio 21 cents.
This means → the drop is nationwide, not regional, with the Midwest and Southwest feeling it most.
What is driving the decline?
The immediate catalyst is progress in U.S.–Iran diplomacy. Markets expect the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint handling roughly a fifth of global crude shipments — to gradually reopen.
In plain terms = war risk looks smaller, oil feels less scarce, and pump prices follow.
GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said that as long as tankers keep transiting the strait, there is no significant risk of a price spike — but a renewed breakdown in U.S.–Iran relations could reverse the picture fast.
Is the "back to normal" assumption reliable?
StoneX analyst Alex Hodes called the expectation of restored strait flows a "major assumption" that could be tested in coming months.
Only two small crude tankers passed through the strait on Monday; Iran said it closed the waterway again over the weekend — traffic remains far below pre-conflict levels.
This means → the price decline rests on a bet that diplomacy keeps working. If talks stall, prices can snap back quickly.
What is going wrong on the refinery side?
A TotalEnergies refinery in Port Arthur, Texas — capacity 238,000 barrels/day — shut down last week after a lightning-triggered power failure. Restart is expected within seven days.
Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay refinery — 631,000 barrels/day — suffered a fire on Sunday.
Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, adding another threat to the Gulf Coast refining complex. In plain terms = whether crude can actually be turned into gasoline is its own open question.
What does this mean for consumers and the political landscape?
Falling gasoline prices are easing consumer-price pressure, a welcome signal for the Trump administration and Republicans ahead of the midterms.
But the supply side faces a triple layer of uncertainty — geopolitics, refinery accidents, and hurricane season. This means → whether the current downtrend can last remains an open question.
This reflects a deeper reality: oil prices are being pulled by two threads at once — diplomatic brinkmanship and extreme weather — and a surprise on either one could break the streak.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.